Chase Burns has given the Reds one of the few real bright spots in a season that hasn’t gone the way Cincinnati hoped after last year’s playoff run, and now the club is staring at the next big call with its young right-hander.
The 23-year-old has earned his All-Star nod the hard way, and his rise has only sharpened the pressure on the Reds to think long term with him. That means not just appreciating what he’s done, but protecting what he could become. Cincinnati had planned to let Burns pitch in the Midsummer Classic, but after he tweaked his groin in his previous start, he will no longer take part in the All-Star Game itself.
Burns, the Reds’ 2024 first-round pick, is still being built up as a pro, and his workload remains a major part of the equation. Francona addressed that back at the end of May, saying he wouldn’t lock the club into a specific innings limit, but made clear they would be paying close attention to how Burns responds as the season goes on.
That matters even more now, with the trade deadline about three weeks away and Cincinnati needing to decide what kind of team it is for the stretch run. The Reds may not be officially out of the race yet, but their playoff chances are fading fast. Once that picture gets clearer, they’ll be in position to make decisions that serve the future, and Burns sits right at the center of that.
There’s a simple reason for the caution. Burns’ only full professional season came last year, when he threw 109⅓ innings. Pushing him too far beyond that total would raise the risk of a serious arm injury, and that’s a line the Reds can’t afford to cross.
The general guideline with young pitchers is a 25% year-to-year jump in innings, and for Burns that would land around 136 innings. Rounded up, that’s about 140. Anything beyond that starts to feel reckless, especially when another 25% increase down the road would put him at 175 innings in 2027.
So Burns should get his moment in Philadelphia this week, make a couple more starts after that, and then likely be shut down for the season. It won’t make the Reds any easier to watch if August and September turn into a slog, but it’s the kind of decision that makes sense for both the pitcher and the organization.
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