The Reds walk into American Family Field this afternoon with the same problem they’ve had all year against Milwaukee: they still haven’t beaten the Brewers once. Now they’re staring at a chance to dodge a sweep in a four-game set, with first pitch set for 2:10 p.m. ET.
It’s not exactly a soft landing spot for Cincinnati. Milwaukee is sending Jacob Misiorowski to the mound, and the numbers say he’s been one of the most overwhelming pitchers in the league.
He owns a 1.45 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP, with 146 strikeouts in 99.0 innings. Across 16 starts, he has allowed three earned runs or fewer every time, and in 14 of those outings he’s given up two runs or fewer.
Over his last 10 starts, he’s surrendered just four total earned runs.
The Reds will counter with Chase Burns, who has been excellent in his own right. His season line sits at a 2.36 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, with 112 strikeouts in 91.2 innings. Burns has only allowed more than two runs twice in 16 starts, though his last outing was one of those rougher nights: the Pirates tagged him for five runs in six innings, even as he punched out a season-high 10 batters.
Burns’ split numbers show a clear divide. Right-handed hitters have had a hard time doing anything at all against him, hitting .206 with just two home runs and five walks. Left-handed bats have found a bit more success, hitting .209, drawing 24 walks, and producing nine homers.
Misiorowski’s splits are just as lopsided, only without much relief for either side. Right-handers are hitting .183 against him, while left-handers are down at .107. Neither group has done much damage in the power department, and both have struck out plenty.
The matchup comes with plenty of recent history leaning Milwaukee’s way. The Brewers have taken 16 of the last 18 series against Cincinnati, and they’ve gone 21-10 against the Reds at American Family Field since 2021.
Cincinnati’s broader numbers tell the same story. The Reds have dropped 18 games since the start of May in which they held a lead, and they’re just 4-20 in division play in 2026.
Milwaukee enters the day at 53-31 and sits atop the division with a 98.6% playoff probability. Chicago is second at 49-38, St. Louis is 44-39, Pittsburgh is 43-44, and Cincinnati trails at 39-46 with playoff odds of 2.1%.
In Other News...
Reds Cannot Afford To Get This Chase Petty Decision Wrong
With Eugenio Suarez and Elly De La Cruz both dealing with injuries, the Reds are already juggling enough on the roster without adding another long-term question to the mix. Chase Petty has given them a useful arm in relief, flashing the kind of stuff that can help in the short term, and his first career save only added to the sense that he can contribute right now.
But Cincinnati also has to think beyond the next week or two, especially with the trade deadline approaching and Hunter Greene due back to help stabilize the rotation. Petty still looks like a pitcher whose best value may come from starting, and the Reds have to decide whether to keep leaning on him in the bullpen or use this window to stretch him back out before the bigger roster picture gets even more complicated. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Finally Responded Against Milwaukee When They Needed It Most
The Reds needed one clean response in Milwaukee, and they finally got it in the finale of the four-game set. Chase Burns gave them exactly the kind of start they were looking for, working six strong innings, and Cincinnati backed him with an early burst that put the game in hand before the Brewers could settle in.
Jose Trevinos three-run shot in the fourth inning was the swing that opened things up, and the bullpen did the rest to protect the lead. It was Cincinnatis first win of the year against Milwaukee, a small but meaningful step after the way the series had been going, and the kind of result that at least leaves the Reds with something to build on. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Fans Had Every Reason To Fear This Gavin Lux Trade
When the Reds sent prospect Mike Sirota to the Dodgers for Gavin Lux, the move was supposed to help Cincinnati add a controllable middle-of-the-order piece while parting with a young player who still had plenty to prove. Instead, the trade has become one of those deals that looks worse with each passing month, especially as the organization has watched the return on both sides fail to line up with the cost.
Lux never gave the Reds the kind of lift they were hoping for, and his stint in Cincinnati ended with another move that only underscored how little traction the original swap gained. Meanwhile, Sirota has kept building his stock in the Dodgers system, which only sharpens the frustration for a club that needed this one to work and now has to live with the possibility that it never really did. [Read more 🡒]