The Cincinnati Reds are about to face a familiar kind of offseason question behind the plate, and the answer should be simple: don’t go shopping in Milwaukee.
Tyler Stephenson is scheduled to become a free agent in the next month, which puts the Reds in the market for a new catcher. That naturally makes Brewers catcher William Contreras look like an enticing name to circle. He’s an All-Star, he’s been central to Milwaukee’s success, and he’s coming off a postseason run that has pushed his profile even higher.
But that doesn’t mean Cincinnati should take the bait.
Contreras will be in the final year of his deal with the Brewers next season. He signed a one-year contract this past spring with a team option for 2027, and because he still has less than six years of service time, Milwaukee could still keep him for one more season even if that option is declined.
That setup makes him a likely trade candidate. The Brewers have never been shy about moving talent while it still carries value, and Contreras fits the same pattern.
His option is worth $14.5 million, and MLB Trade Rumors projects he’d make $14.6 million through arbitration. Either figure would put him above every Brewers player not named Christian Yelich.
Milwaukee has already shown how it operates. Instead of locking up key players with long extensions, the Brewers have been willing to cash in on names like Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams, Corbin Burnes, and Willy Adames before their value disappears. Contreras could be next.
For the Reds, though, this is exactly the kind of move to avoid.
Yes, adding an All-Star catcher to a group that already includes Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart sounds attractive. But a deal like that would leave Cincinnati betting heavily on one player while sacrificing a major haul to get him.
Contreras has been good over the last two seasons, but not at the level he reached from 2022-2024. During that three-year stretch, he hit .283/.363/.472 with a 131 wRC+. Over the past two seasons, those numbers have fallen to .265/.348/.408 with a 111 wRC+.
Then there’s the price tag. A trade would mean paying Contreras $14.5 million in salary, nearly twice what Stephenson made in 2026.
It would also almost certainly take a premium prospect package to get Milwaukee to move him. And if the Brewers are dealing him to a division rival, that cost figures to climb even higher.
That’s the trap here. Milwaukee has built a reputation for turning players over at the right time, and the Reds would be wise not to help them do it again.
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