The Cincinnati Reds are staring at an offseason that could tempt them into the wrong kind of bold move.
With the organization now signaling a preference for contact hitters and more complete, all-around contributors, the front office clearly has some roster trimming to consider. But the timing is tricky. The impending lockout makes a full teardown a bad bet, and the trade market is unlikely to reward Cincinnati for dealing players whose value has already taken a hit.
That’s the central problem: the Reds have plenty of names they might want to move, but few are coming off seasons that would inspire other clubs to pay up.
Ke'Bryan Hayes is one of the clearest examples, with a 13 wRC+ and -1.3 fWAR, while Matt McLain posted a .608 OPS and a 28% strikeout rate. They’re not alone, either. Cincinnati’s group of trade candidates includes players who made themselves harder to move in 2026.
Nick Lodolo finished with a 4.97 ERA and -0.1 fWAR, and his season was again interrupted by blister issues and other injuries that kept him to just 21 starts. That kind of profile doesn’t usually lead to a team parting with serious talent in return, especially after the worst year of a pitcher’s career.
Andrew Abbott’s stock also took a hit after following up his All-Star 2025 with a rougher season. Hunter Greene lost plenty of shine as well, making just five starts before an elbow injury ended with Tommy John surgery and is expected to wipe out most, if not all, of the 2027 season.
That puts president of baseball operations Nick Krall in a difficult spot. If the Reds can’t sell high, maybe they have to buy low themselves.
But that path can get dangerous fast. In baseball, selling low and buying high is the quickest way to drift into irrelevance.
Krall has had some success finding useful pieces on the cheap. Nathaniel Lowe, JJ Bleday, and Dane Myers all arrived as low-risk additions last year and paid off.
The issue now is scale. Cincinnati would need that kind of success to hit at a far higher rate if it wants to build a competitive roster next season.
So the Reds are living on a razor’s edge. Their best trade chips are worth far less than they were before, the payroll doesn’t leave much room for a splash in free agency, and the system doesn’t appear equipped to fuel a blockbuster deal. That leaves the club leaning heavily on bargain additions to become real contributors.
Given all of that, the smartest play may be patience: let the players already in the organization get healthy, let them rebuild some value, and avoid forcing the issue before the Reds are truly ready to choose a direction.
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There are internal and external paths forward, and each comes with its own ripple effect on the core the Reds are trying to build. Sal Stewart could be moved around to help solve a need, while free agency and the trade market offer possibilities such as Xavier Edwards if Cincinnati wants a cleaner long-term answer. Center field is part of the conversation too, with TJ Friedl's departure opening another hole, so the offseason is shaping up as less of a tweak than a real test of how aggressively the Reds want to reshape the roster. [Read more 🡒]