Emilio Pagan’s next move could shape both his future and the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen plans.
The right-hander is the only Reds player with a 2027 option that belongs entirely to him, and the choice is straightforward on paper: take a guaranteed $10,000,000 for 2027 or decline it and test free agency. For Cincinnati, that decision could leave them searching for a new closer. For Pagan, it may be the last real shot to land a multi-year payday.
What makes the call tricky is the balance between security and upside. Pagan came off a 2025 season in which he posted a 2.88 ERA and saved 32 games, then returned to the Reds on a short-term deal that included this option year.
At the time, the fit made sense. Now the question is whether he believes the market would give him more guaranteed money than what’s sitting in front of him.
His 2026 numbers were not as strong on the surface, but the finish was sharp. After coming back from an injury in July, Pagan was lights-out over the final stretch. In 30 games from the start of July through the end of the year, he logged a 1.88 ERA with five walks and 34 strikeouts in 28.2 innings and converted all 19 of his save chances.
Age is part of the equation, too. Pagan is now 36, and while pitchers can age differently than position players, that still matters when teams are deciding how long they want to commit. If he takes the option, he would push free agency back another year, and that would only make it harder to find the kind of multi-year contract he might be chasing.
He has been effective as Cincinnati’s closer, and there’s little doubt he could handle the role elsewhere. But he does not fit the mold of a classic closer based on stuff, and the top-tier clubs are probably not going to treat him like a premium late-inning prize. That likely affects the money attached to the role as well.
So the real calculation may be simple: does Pagan prefer the $10,000,000 in 2027 and whatever he can still earn after that, or would he rather turn it down now and try to lock in a bigger total guarantee over a longer deal? That is the decision facing him.
There is also another layer hanging over all of it: the looming collective bargaining agreement fight and what it could mean for payrolls, budgets, and even the 2027 season itself. If the unthinkable happened and that season were lost, taking the option would leave Pagan with no guaranteed money beyond 2027. If he declined it and reached free agency now, he would almost certainly have some guaranteed money for 2028 even in that scenario.
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