The Reds come home Friday night with a long stretch at Great American Ball Park ahead of them, and the first visitor is Baltimore for a holiday-weekend matchup that kicks off at 7:10 PM EDT.
Cincinnati enters at 40-46, while the Orioles arrive at 40-48 after dropping back-to-back series to the Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox. Baltimore has gone 4-6 over its last 10 games, and both clubs are trying to steady themselves as the calendar pushes toward the All-Star break.
The pitching matchup puts Trevor Rogers opposite Brady Singer, and both starters bring plenty of volatility into this one. Rogers has logged 79.1 innings with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, while Singer sits at 77.1 innings with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP.
Rogers’ 2025 season was the kind of run that makes people sit up - a 1.81 ERA over 18 starts - but 2026 has been a much bumpier ride. He opened the year without much damage through April, then May turned into a mess: a 10.31 ERA across four starts, with 22 earned runs allowed in just 18.1 innings and five homers surrendered.
June, though, looked like a reset. Rogers went 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA in five starts, giving up only seven earned runs over 30.2 innings.
He’s also coming off a pair of strong outings. First came seven shutout innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers, then he held Washington to one run over 6.1 innings.
Even so, the underlying profile has some warning signs. His ground-ball rate has dropped to 37.8%, well below both last season and his career mark of 43.8%, and he has already allowed three more home runs than he did all of last year.
Six of the nine homers he’s given up have come on four-seam fastballs, which he throws more than any other pitch.
That matters on a hot, humid night in Cincinnati, especially with Singer on the other side. The ball could carry.
Rogers has been far tougher on left-handed hitters than right-handed ones. Righties have hit .287 with an .861 OPS against him, while lefties are sitting at .175 with a .539 OPS. His pitch mix is led by a 4-seam fastball at 43.6%, followed by a changeup at 22.5%, a sweeper at 11.6%, a 2-seam at 11.4%, and a cutter at 10.9%.
Singer’s season has followed a different kind of path. He was throwing the ball well through June before a rough outing in Pittsburgh last Saturday, when he gave up five earned runs on nine hits in 4.1 innings.
He did strike out six and didn’t issue a walk, and that part of his profile has held up all season. His walk rate is in the 72% percentile for MLB.
The bigger issue has been damage in the air. Singer has allowed 19 home runs, and hitters are squaring him up more than they have in previous seasons. His Barrel% is 11.3%, up from 9.4% a year ago and the highest of his career.
His splits show more trouble against left-handed hitters than right-handed ones. Righties are batting .273 with a .839 OPS, while lefties are hitting .307 with a .910 OPS. Singer leans heavily on his 2-seam fastball, which he throws 46.7% of the time, then a slider at 31.3%, a sweeper at 11.3%, a cutter at 7.2%, and a 4-seam fastball at 3.5%.
There was also roster movement for Cincinnati on Friday, as the Reds sent third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes on a rehab assignment to High-A Dayton. Mason Neville, the club’s 2026 fourth-round pick, has also been showing a lot of power recently at High-A Dayton.
In the division picture, Milwaukee leads at 53-32, followed by Chicago at 49-38, St. Louis at 45-39, Pittsburgh at 44-44, and Cincinnati at 40-46. The Reds’ playoff odds sit at 2.8%.
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