The Phillies and Reds have already traded punches through two games at Great American Ball Park, and the series comes down to one more night in Cincinnati. The winner at 7:10pm ET takes the set, with Jesus Luzardo and Brady Singer lined up for the finale.
Philadelphia is sending out a lineup built around Trea Turner at shortstop, Kyle Schwarber at DH, Bryce Harper at first base, Brandon Marsh in left, Alec Bohm at third, Bryson Stott at second, Gabriel Rincones Jr. in right, J.T. Realmuto behind the plate, and Justin Crawford in center field.
Cincinnati counters with Elly De La Cruz at short, Sal Stewart at third, JJ Bleday in left, Spencer Steer at first, Eugenio Suarez at DH, Tyler Stephenson catching, Noelvi Marte in right, Edwin Arroyo at second, and TJ Friedl in center.
On paper, the pitching matchup leans heavily toward Philadelphia. Luzardo enters with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP across 103.1 innings, along with 125 strikeouts and 33 walks. Singer has worked 82.1 innings with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP, striking out 71 while issuing 30 walks.
Singer’s season has been uneven, with injuries part of the story and consistency the bigger issue. In his last outing, he gave up two earned runs and walked five in 5.0 innings in a loss to Baltimore. The Reds have won just one of his last 11 starts.
The matchup data doesn’t make things any easier for him. Left-handed hitters have done real damage against Singer, batting .300 with a .362 on-base percentage and a .548 slugging percentage.
Right-handers have also had success, hitting .270 with a .348 OBP and .484 slugging. At home, though, Singer has been better, posting a 3.29 ERA and a .794 OPS against, compared with .955 on the road.
His pitch mix is built around a heavy dose of the two-seamer and slider. He’s used the two-seam fastball 47% of the time and the slider 42%, with a cutter at 8% and a four-seam fastball at 3%.
Luzardo has been much steadier. Outside of an injury-hit 2024, he’s put together a strong run over the last five seasons, with four years under a 4.00 ERA.
The Phillies have backed him well, winning 11 of his last 13 starts. His most recent outing was sharp too: one run allowed and nine strikeouts over 6.0 innings in Kansas City.
The splits against Luzardo are especially stark. Left-handed hitters have managed just a .182 average with a .234 OBP and a .222 slugging percentage. Righties have had more success, batting .271 with a .340 OBP and a .417 slugging mark, but they still haven’t done much power damage.
Luzardo’s arsenal features velocity and swing-and-miss stuff, with a four-seam fastball at 25%, a two-seamer at 18%, a slider at 37%, and a changeup at 21%.
The game is set for Great American Ball Park, with Reds MLB Channel, Reds.tv in-market, and MLB.tv out of market carrying the action. The forecast calls for 85 degrees, cloudy skies, and a 5% chance of rain.
Elsewhere in the organization, Ke’Bryan Hayes had a big night in Louisville on rehab. It was his fourth game on the stint and his second in Triple-A, and after going 1-for-4 with a double on Tuesday, he followed with a 4-for-5 performance on Wednesday that included a double, two singles, and a long home run.
The division picture also shows Cincinnati still in a deep hole. Milwaukee leads at 58-34, Chicago sits at 52-40, St. Louis is 48-43, Pittsburgh is 47-46, and the Reds are 42-49 with 2.0% playoff odds.
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