The Reds need rotation help, but the bigger question is how they want to spend for it. A back-of-the-rotation starter would help, sure, yet the kind of arm Cincinnati would really love is one with front-end upside. That kind of pitcher usually comes with a price tag, and in this market the middle tier may be where the club has to shop.
Casey Mize is the name that jumps out first. The former No. 1 overall pick in 2018 finally looked like he was turning a corner in 2025, at least for a while. Before being traded from the Detroit Tigers to the San Diego Padres at the deadline, he carried a 2.70 ERA in the Motor City and looked every bit like a pitcher ready to take off.
Then came the move to San Diego, and the story flipped fast. Over his final 10 starts, Mize posted a 7.46 ERA. His strikeout rate fell all the way to 12%, and the home runs started flying out at a 2.62 HR/9 clip.
Jim Bowden has predicted that Mize will land a three-year, $54 million contract. That kind of deal, with an $18 million AAV, might be workable for Cincinnati, but it would also tighten the screws on the rest of the offseason. If the Reds go that route, they may not have much room left to address third base, catcher, or the outfield.
That’s where Brady Singer comes back into the conversation.
Singer isn’t coming off a clean season. He finished with a 5.85 ERA this year, and that number is ugly no matter how you slice it.
Still, his broader track record suggests 2026 may have been more of a detour than a new normal. If he returns to what worked for him in Kansas City, there’s a path for him to settle back in as a dependable innings-eater.
Mize, by contrast, has spent much of his career fighting to stay on the mound. Tommy John surgery wiped out all but two starts in 2022 and kept him out for all of 2023.
Since then, lower-body injuries have followed him from season to season. He has never thrown more than 150⅓ innings and logged just 131⅓ frames in 2026.
Singer’s durability is the cleaner part of the comparison. He has made at least 29 starts in each of the last four seasons and thrown at least 153 innings in each of the last five. Most of the time, that workload has come with league-average or better production.
The fit in Great American Ball Park also tilts toward Singer. Neither pitcher is a big strikeout arm - Mize owns a career strikeout rate of 19.6% and sat at 20% in 2026, while Singer has a career mark of 21.3% and a 17.4% rate this year - but the ground-ball profile matters here.
Mize’s 33% ground-ball rate in 2026 was the lowest of his career, and his career average sits at 41.7%. Singer, meanwhile, produced a 41.4% ground-ball rate in 2026 and a 46.2% mark for his career.
That distinction matters in a park where balls in the air can turn into trouble in a hurry.
This isn’t strictly a two-man decision, and there are other arms Cincinnati can chase. But Mize’s name, pedigree, and flashier résumé will almost certainly push his price higher. That doesn’t mean the value will match the cost.
If the Reds have to choose, Singer plus extra money to spread around may be the smarter play than making Mize the main offseason addition.
In Other News...
Reds May Have Found An Affordable Rotation Answer Fans Will Debate
The Reds are heading into an offseason where the rotation still needs some sorting out, with Chase Burns, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo the only arms viewed as sure things right now. That has naturally pushed the front office toward the market for help, and one name that fits the kind of practical, budget-conscious search Cincinnati may have to make is David Peterson, the left-hander who is set to reach free agency after a strong stretch with the Cubs.
Peterson is the sort of mid-rotation option that can make sense on paper because his profile lines up with what the Reds often need from a starter at Great American Ball Park. He also comes with a recent step forward that makes him more than just a depth flier, which is why he is likely to draw real consideration as Cincinnati weighs how aggressive to be in filling out the staff around its young core. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Could Get Pushed Out Of A Crucial Outfield Chase
The Reds have been looking for help in the outfield, and Jarren Duran has emerged as the kind of offseason target that would fit the conversation. Boston is reportedly weighing whether to move the outfielder, which has put Cincinnati in the mix as a potential landing spot for a club that could use another impact bat and some lineup flexibility. For a Reds team trying to sharpen its roster around the edges, Duran is the sort of name that naturally draws attention.
But Cincinnati is unlikely to have a clear path if the market heats up the way it appears it might. San Diego has been tied to Duran as well, and the Red Sox also have their own angle in any broader talks because of their interest in Elly De La Cruz. That gives this chase a layered feel, with the Reds needing the right deal structure and the right timing if they want to stay in position as the offseason unfolds. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Face A Big Tyler Stephenson Decision This Offseason
The Reds have a few offseason questions to sort through, but Tyler Stephenson sits near the top of the list. The veteran catcher is headed for free agency, and there is a growing sense around the club that his steady production and familiarity with the pitching staff make him a logical candidate to stay in Cincinnati.
Sports Illustrateds analysts expect the sides to find common ground on a short-term deal, which would keep the catching situation stable for at least another season. For the Reds, the appeal goes beyond the present tense, since Stephensons presence would help bridge the gap while the organization waits for its next wave of talent behind the plate to develop. [Read more 🡒]