The Cincinnati Reds have a rotation problem to solve this offseason, and Brady Singer sits right in the middle of it.
With money coming off the books, Cincinnati still won’t have much flexibility once arbitration raises and a pile of roster holes are accounted for. That makes the starting-pitching market a tough place to shop, especially for a team that needs help at the back end of the rotation.
One possibility that has been floated is a qualifying offer for Singer, which is expected to land around $23 million. But given how rough his season has been, the Reds may not need to go that far to keep him - though a deal with an extra year attached could be part of the conversation.
That’s because Singer’s 5.67 ERA is the worst in baseball among starters with at least 154 innings pitched. For a Reds club that’s been sorely disappointed in 2026, that kind of number doesn’t exactly scream “bring him back.”
Still, Singer had built a reputation before this year as a dependable innings eater. He wasn’t flashy, but he was steady.
That version of him has disappeared for now.
The good news for Cincinnati is that there are clear reasons to believe the decline isn’t permanent.
The biggest shift has come in how Singer is using his pitches. His mix has changed noticeably since his final season in Kansas City in 2024, when he posted a 3.71 ERA.
Back then, he was nearly split between his sinker and slider. In Cincinnati, that balance has tilted.
His sinker usage has jumped to 51% in 2026, while the slider has dropped to 27%. His sweeper has crept up from 5% in 2024 to 13% this year, and he’s also added a cutter.
Meanwhile, the four-seamer has almost vanished.
That heater matters more than the raw usage numbers might suggest. Singer only throws it around 91 mph, which doesn’t sound like much in today’s game.
But he also gets elite extension - about seven feet, good for the 85th percentile this season - and that helps the pitch play up. On top of that, his fastball spin was excellent in 2024 at 2,364 RPM, ranking 99th among qualified pitchers, starters and relievers alike.
That kind of spin helps the ball carry, and Singer has shown he can locate the pitch up in the zone when he uses it.
That’s the key. He doesn’t need to lean on the four-seamer constantly, but he does need hitters to respect it.
If the pitch is part of the picture often enough, it can change eye level and keep opponents from simply sitting on the bottom of the strike zone. Right now, batters can wait for the sinker and slider to dive and force Singer to prove he can miss bats elsewhere.
The other issue is his arm angle. It has steadily dropped, from 28 degrees in 2024 to 25 degrees in 2025 and 23 degrees in 2026.
That lower slot has taken some of the downward action off his sinker and slider, making both pitches flatter and more horizontal. The result is a pair of offerings that are easier to handle and harder for him to bury where he wants them.
The numbers reflect that change. Singer’s ground-ball rate has fallen from 47.1% in 2024 to 41.4% this season, and that matters even more in Great American Ball Park. With fewer grounders coming, his home run rate has climbed from 1.10 per nine innings in his final year with the Royals to 1.83 now.
All of this points in the same direction: these problems may be tied to coaching, especially since they began once Singer got to Cincinnati. With him and several other previously effective pitchers struggling, the Reds may need to take a hard look at pitching coach Derek Johnson’s future.
For Singer, though, the path forward is pretty straightforward. If the Reds can buy low after a miserable 2026 and get him back to what worked before, he could wind up being exactly the kind of stabilizing arm they need at the back of the rotation.
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