The Reds and Cubs have spent the first two games of this series trading blows, and the scoreboard has barely had time to catch its breath. Forty runs have already crossed the plate in a split of the first two games, and with the series on the line Sunday night, Cincinnati and Chicago are set for one more high-octane matchup.
First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET, with the game airing on NBC. Rain is in the forecast, although the expectation is that it should clear shortly after the scheduled start and the game should still be played.
Cincinnati is sending Chase Burns to the mound against Chicago’s Shota Imanaga in a matchup that gives both clubs plenty to think about. Burns comes in with a 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 49 walks and 164 strikeouts over 139.2 innings. Imanaga has logged 145.1 innings with a 3.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 34 walks and 144 strikeouts.
Burns is trying to bounce back from the roughest outing he’s had in more than a year. In his last start, the Giants tagged him for five runs on nine hits and a walk in just 3.2 innings.
It was the second time in August that he gave up five earned runs, after doing that only twice across his first 21 starts before suddenly doing it twice in his last four. He has faced the Cubs only once in his career, and that came last September in relief, when he allowed one run in 1.1 innings.
The split numbers against Burns are striking. Right-handed hitters have had almost no success against him, while lefties have been more dangerous when they do get to him.
Against righties, Burns has held opponents to a .192 average with only two home runs and 10 walks across 203 plate appearances. Lefties have hit .234 against him, but they’ve drawn 39 walks and hit 12 home runs in 364 plate appearances.
Burns has leaned heavily on a fastball-slider mix this season. His four-seam fastball sits at 97.7 mph and accounts for 56% of his pitches, while his slider comes in at 90.2 mph and is used 39% of the time. His changeup has been almost an afterthought at 5%.
Imanaga’s season has been more of a roller coaster. He opened with a 2.32 ERA over his first nine starts, then hit a brutal stretch from starts 10 through 13 when his ERA ballooned to 10.80 and he surrendered 12 home runs in four games.
Since then, he’s settled back in, throwing 69.1 innings over 13 starts with a 2.73 ERA. His most recent outing ended early, as he faced two batters in the third inning and didn’t retire either before being pulled.
Against the Reds this year, he has made two starts and allowed one run in each, striking out 10 in May and five in July.
The platoon splits against Imanaga aren’t nearly as dramatic, though lefties have done a bit more damage when they’ve gotten to him. Right-handed hitters have hit .241 against him with 20 home runs in 425 plate appearances. Lefties have a lower average at .217, but they’ve produced more power on a per-hit basis, with 10 home runs among 33 hits in 167 plate appearances.
Imanaga’s arsenal is built around variety. His four-seam fastball is his most-used pitch at 42%, followed by the splitter at 32% and the slider at 15%. He also mixes in a sinker, cutter and curveball, giving hitters a different look throughout the game.
Elsewhere in the Reds’ system, Graham Ashcraft had a tough Sunday in his third rehab outing with Louisville. He retired the first two batters on ground balls, then gave up a double, walked a hitter on four pitches, allowed a two-run triple and issued another walk to finish his day. Ashcraft threw 27 pitches, but only 12 were strikes.
There was also postseason movement across the organization. The Single-A Daytona Tortugas clinched the FSL East Division’s second-half title and secured a playoff berth, even though they still have a week left in the regular season.
The High-A Dayton Dragons have also earned a playoff spot. The Arizona Complex League Reds were knocked out in the league championship series last month, and the Dominican Summer League Reds lost in the league championship series on Saturday.
In the division race, Milwaukee leads at 85-51 and has already locked up a playoff spot, while Chicago sits at 77-59 and is all but in as well. St.
Louis is 68-69, Pittsburgh is 66-71 and Cincinnati is 64-72. According to Fangraphs, the Reds’ playoff odds are 0.0%.
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