If the Cincinnati Reds are serious about making a leap in 2026, they’ll need more than just internal growth - they’ll need a bat. A real one. And there may not be a better fit on the trade market than Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran.
Duran, an All-Star and MVP candidate just a season ago, didn’t quite match that level in 2025 - but don’t let that fool you. He still posted a .256/.332/.442 slash line with 16 homers, 84 RBIs, and a 114 OPS+.
That kind of production would’ve easily slotted him into the top tier of Cincinnati’s lineup last season. In fact, those numbers would’ve made him one of the Reds’ three most productive hitters by most measures.
The Reds have made it clear they’re not shopping at the top of the free-agent market - the Kyle Schwarber chase ended without a deal, and there’s been no indication they’re pivoting to another high-dollar option. That leaves the trade market as the most likely path to a meaningful upgrade. Enter Duran, a dynamic outfielder who brings speed, power, and a level of offensive consistency this Reds lineup desperately needs.
But here’s the rub: Duran won’t come cheap.
According to reporting, the Kansas City Royals - who’ve reportedly looked into Duran themselves - believe the Red Sox would ask for left-hander Cole Ragans in return. That’s a strong hint at what Boston’s price tag looks like. If the Reds were to get involved, the equivalent ask would likely be Nick Lodolo.
Let’s talk about that.
Lodolo and Ragans are cut from a similar cloth. Both are lefties with frontline starter upside when healthy.
Lodolo has logged 76 big league games with a 4.06 ERA and 456 strikeouts in 409 innings. Ragans, who’s also spent some time in relief, has made 66 starts in 83 appearances, posting a 3.66 ERA and 461 strikeouts over 384 innings.
There are some key differences too. Lodolo is under team control through 2027, while Ragans has an extra year of arbitration left. Ragans also posted one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball last season (38.1%), while Lodolo has leaned more on his command, walking just 4.8% of batters faced.
Still, the similarities are strong enough that it’s fair to assume Boston would view Lodolo as the kind of arm they’d want back in a Duran deal. Whether the Red Sox would ask for more - a prospect or two to round out the package - remains to be seen. But one thing’s clear: if the Reds want to get serious about adding a bat like Duran’s, they’ll likely have to part with one of their top arms.
That’s not an easy call. Lodolo’s upside is real, but so is his injury history.
He’s shown flashes of being a rotation anchor, but he’s also struggled to stay on the field. If the Reds believe Duran can be a difference-maker in the heart of their lineup - and if they’re willing to gamble on their pitching depth - this might be the kind of calculated risk that changes the trajectory of their 2026 season.
For now, Cincinnati’s front office has been hesitant to deal from its pitching core. President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall has downplayed the idea of subtracting from the rotation. But with free agency offering few answers and the lineup needing a jolt, trading an arm like Lodolo may be the most realistic way to add a bat like Duran’s.
It’s a tough decision, but it’s also the kind of move that separates teams trying to compete from those actually ready to win.