History says the Reds may have a decision to make before the trade deadline on Aug. 3, and the numbers entering Sunday’s series finale against the Cubs pointed in an uncomfortable direction.
Cincinnati was seven games under .500 at 43-51 on July 11. That kind of hole has already put the Reds in seller territory before: in 2024, they sold at the deadline while five games under .500. In 2025, they went the other way and bought when they were five games over .500.
So if July doesn’t turn into the club’s best month of the season, the Reds could be staring at some tough calls. And if that happens, they have no shortage of names that would draw interest.
Eugenio Suárez is the obvious one. A year ago at this point, the third baseman/DH was the hot name on the market, an All-Star in the middle of a huge power season.
This year has gone very differently, with Suárez struggling to produce for Cincinnati. Even so, he still carries the kind of reputation that can matter at the deadline: he has shown he can get scorching hot, and quality third basemen are hard to come by across MLB.
Nathaniel Lowe is another bat that could make sense for a contender. The first baseman/DH signed a minor league deal with the Reds in February, and he has been a quality hitter against right-handed pitching all season. That kind of profile fits plenty of clubs, whether in a platoon role or as a strong bench piece.
Tyler Stephenson would be a more delicate call. If Cincinnati keeps him, he would become the first homegrown Reds player since Michael Lorenzen in 2021 to reach free agency at the end of his rookie contract with the team; everyone else has been traded or released before getting there.
Catchers are always at a premium, and Stephenson has been quietly very good since the start of June. He is also a free agent after the season.
The bullpen group could also be in play. Caleb Ferguson missed the first two months with an oblique injury, but since returning he has been solid and has lived up to his reputation as a dependable veteran left-handed specialist. He has already been traded multiple times in his big league career, and that kind of arm tends to have a market in July.
Brock Burke, acquired in January in a three-team deal that sent Gavin Lux away, has also been a useful piece. He brings a left-handed look, can get outs against right-handed hitters too, and offers the kind of versatility teams like to stockpile. He, too, is headed for free agency after the season.
Pierce Johnson fits the same general mold. He has been one of the more reliable middle relievers in MLB since the 2023 season, and his versatility gives him a place in almost any bullpen. Cincinnati invested heavily in bullpen depth, and while some of the returning relievers have dealt with injuries and the rookie arms have not developed as hoped, Burke, Ferguson and Johnson have been bright spots.
Brady Singer is another name to watch if the Reds go that route. He is a free agent after the season, and Cincinnati currently has six starting pitchers on the roster.
Rhett Lowder working out of the bullpen is only a temporary arrangement. Singer stumbled in May, but he has clearly found his footing over the last month.
Nick Lodolo is a different conversation entirely. He is under contract through 2027, so moving him would be a far bolder swing for the Reds. It would also bring back a larger return than any player they could deal who is only under control for the final year.
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It fit into a draft that already leaned heavily toward infield talent, with the Reds adding Virginia shortstop Eric Becker in the second round after making their first-round choice. For a front office that came away feeling good about how the day unfolded, Lausch was the kind of late swing that can make a draft class more interesting, especially for a club that is always looking for athleticism and upside wherever it can find it. [Read more 🡒]