The Cincinnati Reds came out of the trade deadline with two moves, and neither one looked like the kind of swing that changes a season.
First baseman Nathaniel Lowe was sent to the Cleveland Guardians for a 19-year-old pitcher, while left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson went to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for international bonus pool money.
That was it. No extra push, no bigger add, no full teardown.
For a club sitting 5½ games out in the NL Wild Card race, with September bringing series against both the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, the approach raised plenty of eyebrows. FanGraphs gives Cincinnati just a 2.1% chance to reach the playoffs, and yet Nick Krall and the front office appeared to act like the Reds still have a real shot to chase down a spot.
Most observers expected the team to move off its expiring contracts. Instead, Cincinnati chose a narrower path and seems intent on trying to sneak into the postseason for the second straight year.
Lowe’s departure stands out because of what he brought to the roster. Signed to a minor-league deal in February, he was a low-cost pickup who ended up giving the Reds real value. After Eugenio Suárez was sidelined by injury, Lowe moved into the everyday lineup and settled in as a clubhouse leader.
He also did what he has done for a long time: hit. A former Silver Slugger, Lowe was especially dangerous against right-handed pitching, batting .286/.363/.522 with 12 home runs versus righties before the deal. That kind of production will likely translate to his new role with Cleveland, where he now becomes his fifth team in three years.
Ferguson was another useful piece. He opened the season on the injured list with an oblique issue, but once he got back, he became a reliable arm in the Reds’ bullpen. In 26 appearances, the Ohio native posted a 4.01 ERA with a 20.2% strikeout rate.
Taken together, the two deals don’t exactly leave Cincinnati worse off. But they also don’t move the needle in the other direction.
The Reds shed productive veterans, but they didn’t use the deadline to make the roster better. That’s what makes this one feel so hard to read.
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