The Cincinnati Reds are already staring at one major bullpen loss this offseason, and the pressure is only building from there.
Emilio Pagán is gone after signing with the Detroit Tigers, and now the Reds could be at risk of losing more familiar names as free agency gets rolling. Tyler Stephenson and Eugenio Suárez are both in that mix, and Cincinnati can’t really afford to let the list keep growing without answers coming back the other way.
One of the more notable predictions out there involves Stephenson. In a recent Sports Illustrated free agency rundown, Will Laws projected the Reds catcher to leave Cincinnati and land with the San Francisco Giants on a one-year, $10 million deal.
“Stephenson endured multiple injuries at the beginning of his career that cost him considerable playing time, but he’s managed to overcome them and stick in the lineup with some consistency, averaging 15 homers and 460 plate appearances over the past four seasons,” Selbe wrote. “Everyday catchers who are league average with the bat are hard to come by, and that’s what Stephenson’s been for the better part of his career. Catching is the most scarce position in the game, so he should have no shortage of interested teams this winter.”
That kind of profile is exactly why Stephenson would be tough for Cincinnati to replace. He has been an above-average catcher for most of his time with the Reds, and he has posted an OPS+ of 100 or better in six of his first seven big league seasons. That’s not production the Reds can simply pull off the shelf from the farm system right now.
Alfredo Duno is still a year or two away from the majors, and even then, there’s no guarantee he arrives as an above-average bat.
If the Giants do make that move, the Reds would have to find a replacement in free agency. But the simplest path would be to keep Stephenson in Cincinnati and beat the market before he gets away.
Pagán already left for a few million dollars. The Reds can’t really let Stephenson walk if his next deal is going to sit around $10 million a year.
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