The Reds may be heading into another winter of weighing value against familiarity, and Aaron Civale could end up sitting right in that lane. Cincinnati president of baseball operations Nick Krall reportedly had interest in Nick Martinez last offseason after the club missed out on Kyle Schwarber, but the Reds went a different direction, signing Eugenio Suárez to a one-year, $15 million deal while Martinez landed with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Now Martinez is back on the market for the third time in four years, and another Cincinnati pursuit would not be a surprise. The problem is the price. Spotrac projects him for a two-year contract worth $42 million, a number that looks heavy for a Reds team that will already be dealing with Hunter Greene’s $15.3 million salary in 2027.
That’s where Civale enters the picture. The former Cleveland Guardians starter is set to become a free agent this offseason, and his projected deal is far easier for Cincinnati to swallow at $6.7 million. He spent last season with both the Athletics and the Chicago Cubs, finishing with a 4.20 ERA and 4.65 FIP overall.
The split in his numbers is hard to miss. In West Sacramento, the results were rougher, but after moving to Chicago in mid-July, Civale looked much sharper.
Across 18 appearances with the Cubs, all out of the bullpen, he threw 36⅔ innings and posted a 1.72 ERA with a 3.24 FIP. His WHIP also dropped sharply, falling from 1.621 to 1.064 after the trade.
Civale’s profile overlaps with Martinez in another important way: he’s been used both as a starter and a reliever. Last season, he made 15 starts and 19 relief appearances while working a little over 100 innings. He also fits the mold of a pitcher who keeps traffic off the bases with a steady mix rather than overpowering hitters with a 95-plus mph fastball.
A reunion with Martinez would make sense, but if the market really pushes him toward that $21 million average annual value, the Reds may decide that’s too rich for a middle-of-the-road starter who will be 37 next season. If that happens, Krall and the front office could be looking for a cheaper version of Martinez. Civale looks like a realistic candidate.
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