The Reds are still technically in the chase with a little less than six weeks left in the 2026 season, but the numbers have turned that chase into a steep climb. FanGraphs has Cincinnati’s postseason odds at 0.6%, and with a brutal September stretch ahead, October baseball looks like a long shot.
That’s why the season keeps circling back to the same question: what went wrong? Injuries to Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Elly De La Cruz clearly played a part, but the bullpen has been the recurring problem - the one flaw that keeps showing up and, in this case, may have buried the team before it ever had a real chance to recover.
The raw numbers tell a rough story. Cincinnati’s relievers rank 20th in K/9 at 8.42, 24th in WHIP at 1.42, 25th in ERA at 4.46, and last in BB/9 at 4.86. Reds bullpen arms have allowed the third-most walks in the majors and the seventh-most home runs.
What makes it even more frustrating is how sharply the group’s season has split into extremes. The bullpen was strong in March and April, collapsed in May and June, then steadied again in July. That kind of swing explains a lot about the Reds’ year.
Through April 30, Cincinnati’s bullpen owned the fifth-best ERA in baseball at 3.44. At that point, the Reds were 20-11 and sitting atop the NL Central, looking like a team headed for something real. Then May arrived, and the whole thing started to unravel.
From May 1 through June 30, the bullpen’s ERA ballooned to 5.72, worse than every team except the Rockies, who were at 6.20. Cincinnati also posted a 5.66 FIP, dead last in MLB, and a 5.63 BB/9, the worst mark in the game.
Since July 1, though, the relief corps has looked like a different unit. The Reds are back in the top 10 in ERA at 3.38 and FIP at 3.88, and the walks have come down to 2.94 BB/9.
Even with that rebound, the damage was already done. When you combine March, April, July, and August, the Reds are 38-28.
But the May-June stretch dragged them down to a miserable 19-34. The lineup has had its issues and the rotation has been hit by injuries, but the bullpen’s inconsistency has been the biggest reason this season is slipping away.
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Eugenio Surez Just Made The Reds Next Decision A Lot Tougher
Eugenio Surez has made a strong case for staying in Cincinnati a little longer. After a slow start interrupted by injury, he has found his rhythm again in recent games, giving the Reds a jolt at the right time and turning himself back into a useful piece for a club trying to sort out its late-season roster picture.
Surez said he wants to remain with the Reds through the rest of this season and even into next year, pointing to the mutual option in his contract as a possible path forward. Terry Francona has noticed the turnaround, praising Surezs work ethic and the value he has brought lately, and now the question is whether Cincinnati is ready to match the players interest with a decision of its own. [Read more 🡒]