The Cincinnati Reds may have more than one big decision ahead, but none looms larger than Elly De La Cruz.
At the team’s end-of-season press conference, owner Phil Castellini backed Nick Krall and his front office after a stretch of public tension, signaling that the two sides appear to have smoothed things over. But once the conversation shifted to De La Cruz, the financial reality around Cincinnati’s star shortstop came into focus fast.
De La Cruz is coming off the first 30-30 season of his career, and now he’s entering his first trip through arbitration. The 24-year-old is projected to see his pay jump from $800,000 in 2026 to potentially $7.9 million or more in 2027. That kind of rise only sharpens the question around how long the Reds can realistically keep him.
Castellini didn’t offer specifics on any extension path, instead framing the issue as part of the bigger team-building picture.
"Those types of decisions have to be in the construct of a total strategic plan for this franchise," Castellini said, while also calling De La Cruz a "once-in-a-lifetime talent," but deferring the specifics of any potential extension plans to Krall.
That leaves Cincinnati staring at a familiar problem with a far more expensive version of the same player. De La Cruz is already represented by Scott Boras, and he previously turned down a Reds offer that would have topped Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225 million deal as the richest in franchise history. The exact terms were never made public, but the offer was not believed to be far beyond the nearly quarter-billion dollars Votto got, and its present-day value would have been lower.
Even with that earlier rejection, the numbers around De La Cruz only get bigger from here. Votto has suggested the shortstop could land a 12-year, $700 million contract, and that figure has been floated before in discussions about the star. Only Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto have reached that $700 million level.
Cincinnati is not built to operate in that neighborhood. A deal of that magnitude would make it nearly impossible for the Reds to round out the roster with enough quality around him, let alone add another star. So the real question becomes not whether De La Cruz is worth it, but when the organization would have to consider moving him instead of paying him.
That’s the uncomfortable part. Trading a superstar before his prime is hard enough. Picking the right moment is even harder.
De La Cruz took a real step forward in 2026, especially against left-handed pitching. He came into the season with a career .607 OPS against southpaws and then posted a .990 mark against them this year. If that kind of growth continues, he could be a perennial MVP candidate as soon as next season.
From a pure asset-management standpoint, the offseason might seem like the cleanest window. He still has three years of team control left, and moving him now could bring back a massive haul while the Reds still have some flexibility with other young pieces. Chase Burns and Sal Stewart are moving on a different timeline, with Burns already extended and Stewart indicating he’d be open to a long-term deal.
But waiting carries its own danger. If Cincinnati holds on too long, it risks losing leverage the way the Tigers did with Tarik Skubal. De La Cruz’s final year of team control is 2029, and by then the Reds could be boxed in by other clubs, with the possibility of getting only a compensation pick if he walks, much like the Los Angeles Angels did with Ohtani.
That’s why the most logical window appears to be the 2028 trade deadline. At that point, the Reds could still drive a hard bargain with contenders desperate for a franchise-changing talent, while the buying team would also get another full year of control. If the offers aren’t strong enough, Cincinnati could always push the decision deeper into the 2028-2029 offseason or even the 2029 trade deadline.
It’s a brutal balancing act. De La Cruz is climbing into the tier of players where no trade package ever feels equal, because matching that kind of value can gut the team on the other side. Still, the sweet spot for the Reds seems to be the point where they can cash in with about a year and a half of control left.
For now, though, the job is simple in theory and difficult in practice: make the most of De La Cruz while he’s here. The window is open, but it won’t stay that way forever. Nick Krall, this is where you earn your paycheck.
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