The Reds are about to get another look at the Ke’Bryan Hayes trade, and this one feels like a fork in the road.
Cincinnati brought Hayes in last summer hoping his glove would stabilize third base and his bat would come along enough to make the deal worthwhile. Instead, the early returns have been rough, and Hayes has been out since May 22 with a bulging disk in his back. He’s now rehabbing at the team’s facility in Arizona.
Reds manager Terry Francona recently provided an update through Cincinnati reporter Charlie Goldsmith, and there are at least signs of progress. Hayes is swinging the bat again, working through a core stabilization program, and also making the adjustment the Reds’ hitting coaches have been pushing him to add.
That matters, because the offensive track record has been stubbornly thin. Even before the injury, Hayes looked lost at the plate.
In 54 games, he hit .142/.195/.225 with two home runs, five RBI, a 10 wRC+, and -0.9 fWAR. At that point, if he weren’t under contract through 2029, the conversation would already be over.
Instead, Cincinnati is committed to paying him more than $30 million over the next four seasons, which buys him time. How much time is the real question.
What’s clear is that Hayes will be back on the Reds roster later this season if he’s healthy. While he’s been out, Cincinnati has used Sal Stewart and Eugenio Suárez at third base. Stewart has held his own there, while Suárez has not been much better than Hayes, either at the plate or in the field.
The Reds’ preferred path is obvious enough: get Hayes back at third for the long haul, keep Stewart getting real reps at first base, and hope the whole thing settles into place. But if Hayes returns and the bat still doesn’t show up, the Reds will be staring at a tough decision.
Hayes can still change the picture with his defense. The problem is that his offense has been so light that it wipes out much of what his glove gives back.
That’s why this stretch matters so much. The injury may have given him a reset away from the daily pressure of big-league results, and Cincinnati needs that reset to count.
This might be the last real chance for the Reds to salvage something from last year’s trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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