The Reds’ farm system has slipped from No. 12 in MLB Pipeline’s preseason rankings to No. 23 in the latest update in August, and that drop does come with some warning lights. But the ranking itself is only part of the story.
A chunk of the decline is the natural cost of success. Sal Stewart helped push the system up earlier in 2026 before becoming the NL Rookie of the Year favorite, which is exactly how a pipeline is supposed to work.
Edwin Arroyo has also moved on from prospect status, and as more young players graduate, the farm inevitably leans on a new wave of less-proven talent. Justin Lebron is among the names expected to help lift it again over time.
The bigger problem for Cincinnati is not just who is in the system, but what kind of players are there. The Reds have made athletic shortstops a priority in the draft, and that shows up in the top 30: four of the top 10 prospects are shortstops.
Zoom in even further and the imbalance becomes clearer. Nine of those top 10 are position players, with only 19-year-old Aaron Watson representing a real future arm building block.
That matters because the Reds are staring at a rotation need in 2027, and the farm doesn’t offer many easy answers.
Chase Burns has established himself as a true ace and softened the blow of Hunter Greene’s absence, but Greene will miss all of 2027 after his second Tommy John surgery. Burns gives Cincinnati a front-line starter, and Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo sit behind him despite both dealing with struggles in 2026. Still, the depth picture gets shaky fast.
Brady Singer is headed for free agency, and without Greene, the Reds do not have many obvious options to cover the back end of the rotation, let alone survive injuries along the way.
There are some arms from the previous prospect wave - Rhett Lowder, Chase Petty and Julian Aguiar - but each comes with real uncertainty. None should be counted out yet, but the odds are what they are. Hitting on Burns and watching the others stall would fit the usual prospect math.
That leaves Cincinnati in a tough spot. Lowder, Petty and Aguiar might be fine as sixth, seventh or eighth starters, but they do not project cleanly as No. 4 or No. 5 types.
Watson is the other name to watch. The Reds took the 6-foot-5 right-hander in the second round a year ago, and he made his pro debut this season.
In the Arizona Complex League, he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 29% K-rate over 27⅔ innings, then hit a rough patch after a promotion to Single-A Daytona. In 10⅓ innings there, he allowed 15 runs, 12 earned, and walked seven.
He is not someone to give up on, but he is also far from a finished product. Watson graduated high school last year and still has not mastered A-ball.
The cleanest solution would be for the Reds to add a veteran in free agency to handle the fourth starter job. A reunion with Brady Singer or Nick Martinez would fit that plan. Then Cincinnati could let two or three young arms in the top 10 battle for the fifth spot in spring training.
Whether free agency gives them that answer is another matter. What is clear is that the Reds do not have enough quality internal depth lined up in the upper minors, and that makes a 2027 rotation weakness feel likely.
In Other News...
Reds Have A New Reason To Lock Up Sal Stewart Fast
Elly De La Cruzs future has become a reminder of how quickly the window can shift for a team that builds around young stars. Scott Boras said De La Cruz intends to reach free agency after the 2029 season and is not expected to sign a long-term extension with Cincinnati anytime soon, a stance that pushes the Reds toward a familiar front-office reality: if a cornerstone player is going to play out the clock, the next priority is making sure the next one does not.
Sal Stewart is suddenly the obvious candidate for that kind of commitment. After a strong rookie season, he has already given the Reds something more concrete to build around, and the club has watched other teams move early to lock up young talent before the price climbs higher. If Cincinnati wants to keep its roster from becoming a revolving door of short-term value and eventual departures, Stewart looks like the player worth acting on before the market forces the issue. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Have A Crucial Extension Window Before Things Get Complicated
With the next labor fight looming in the 2026-27 offseason, the Reds have a window right now to do some business before everything around Major League Baseball gets more complicated. A lockout would freeze the market and make roster planning harder, which is why Cincinnati is being urged to get ahead of the curve with multi-year extensions for players who already look important to the clubs present and future.
The list of possible candidates is a useful one because it mixes established names with younger pieces the Reds would like to keep around. Elly De La Cruz is the obvious centerpiece, but Sal Stewart also fits the long-range picture, and Tyler Stephenson remains a key part of the roster when healthy. On the pitching side, Brady Singer and Brock Burke bring value, while Eugenio Surez adds another veteran option if the Reds decide the timing is right to try to lock someone in before the calendar turns and the bargaining landscape shifts. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Fans Finally Have A Farm Club Run Worth Watching
The Reds farm system has had its share of uneven nights this fall, but Dayton gave the organization something it has not had often enough in the minors: a playoff run worth following. The High-A Dragons knocked off the Great Lakes Loons in their opening series, leaning on Mason Morris and Jimmy Romano to piece together a shutout in the decisive game while Ryan McCrystal helped supply the offense with a home run.
For Cincinnati, that kind of development matters because it keeps the focus on players performing when the games carry extra weight. The picture is less encouraging in Daytona, where the Tortugas were swept by Jupiter and never found much rhythm on either side of the ball, leaving Dayton as the clubs lone affiliate still alive and giving Reds fans a reason to keep one eye on the scoreboard. [Read more 🡒]