Nick Lodolo sits at the center of one of the Reds’ trickiest offseason decisions, and the case for keeping him is almost as strong as the case for moving him.
On one hand, he looks like the kind of starting pitcher teams are always hunting: affordable, talented, and still under contract with just one year of team control left. On the other, he’s coming off a season that knocked plenty of shine off his value. For Cincinnati, that creates a real tug-of-war between patience and profit.
The biggest reason Lodolo remains appealing is simple: when he’s been healthy, he’s been very good for the Reds. That included 2025, when he posted a 3.33 ERA over a career-high 156⅔ innings. He has shown flashes of being more than just a solid rotation piece, and at times he’s been downright dominant.
But the injury baggage is impossible to ignore, especially the blisters on his throwing hand that have kept popping up. That issue has played a huge role in the uneven results, and it’s a major reason why his trade value has taken such a hit.
That’s also why Cincinnati may be looking at a sell-low situation. Over 21 starts this past season, Lodolo logged a 4.97 ERA and 5.70 FIP, with -0.1 fWAR. Those numbers, plus the health concerns, have done serious damage to how the rest of the league views him.
Still, there’s a market for affordable pitching, and Lodolo checks that box. He earned $4.725 million in 2026 and doesn’t appear headed for a massive raise after such a complicated year. In an offseason where the economics of the sport will dominate the conversation, that kind of contract can grab attention.
If the Reds can convince another club that Lodolo’s blister problems are finally easing up - he changed pitch grips mid-season in an effort to do just that - there’s at least a path to bringing back young, controllable talent. That’s the kind of move other organizations have made before, including the Milwaukee Brewers with players like Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta.
Then again, Cincinnati has its own reasons to hold tight. If the Reds are thinking about 2027, keeping Lodolo might make more sense than cashing in now. He faded badly in September, when his FIP sat at 5.93, but that rough finish doesn’t erase how good he was in 2025.
Hunter Greene is already set to miss all of next year, and that makes rotation depth more precious. With the front office also needing to focus on rebuilding the offense, there’s a strong argument for leaving the pitching staff as intact as possible.
In the end, both directions make sense. This feels like a decision that may hinge less on theory and more on the market. If another team puts a satisfying offer on Nick Krall’s desk, Lodolo could easily be wearing a different uniform next season.
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