Matt McLain’s projected arbitration number is going to get attention in Cincinnati, but it probably shouldn’t send the Reds running for the exit.
MLB Trade Rumors released its annual arbitration projections, and McLain is one of a dozen Reds players lined up for a raise heading toward the 2027 season. The number attached to him is $4 million, up from the one-year, $2.3 million deal he signed last offseason as a Super Two player.
That estimate lands with extra weight because McLain is coming off a second straight season of shaky production at the plate. In 2026, he hit .185/.274/.334 with 15 home runs, 40 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a 67 wRC+.
It’s a sharp contrast from the player who burst onto the scene in 2023. McLain hit .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 50 RBI, and 14 steals as a rookie, and if an oblique injury hadn’t limited him to 89 games, he would have had a real case in the NL Rookie of Year race. Instead, he finished fifth behind Corbin Carroll, Kodai Senga, James Outman, and Nolan Jones.
Then came another setback. McLain missed the entire 2024 season after a shoulder injury in spring training, and when he returned in 2025, he never fully recaptured that rookie-level impact. Over the last two seasons combined, he has hit just .204/.288/.339 with a 74 wRC+.
After the 2026 season, Reds General Manager Brad Meador addressed the slump and made clear what the club wanted to see next. He said, "He got into a point where he was trying to swing his way out of it.
He and the hitting guys broke down what the offseason needs to look like. It starts with being on the fastball.”
Even with that track record, the Reds shouldn’t be quick to cut him loose. Non-tendering McLain is technically on the table, but moving on from a young player after a couple of down years is not the kind of decision that usually builds a strong organization. Cincinnati also didn’t help itself by forcing the issue midseason in 2026, though Elly De La Cruz’s injury and Edwin Arroyo’s shortcomings were part of the equation.
McLain also showed this spring that he can still force his way onto the roster when he’s right. He hit .509/.559/.981 in 18 Cactus League games, earned a spot on the Opening Day roster, and was even slotted near the top of the lineup behind TJ Friedl.
That said, the Reds won’t be handing him the second base job on a silver platter next year. He’ll have to win it back again, and the pressure will be real once spring training opens. If he comes out swinging well again, he’ll still have to keep producing during the season to hold onto the role.
The good news for Cincinnati is that the position is no longer short on alternatives. Edwin Arroyo, Juan Brito, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Spencer Steer can all handle second base, even if none of them bring McLain’s defensive value there. Steer and Cabrera can move around the field, while the others are league-minimum options that give the Reds an inexpensive fallback.
So yes, $4 million can sound steep for a player with McLain’s last two seasons. But if he gets back to the level he showed as a rookie, that price suddenly looks like a bargain. The Reds can’t afford to give up too fast on young players who still have upside, especially with a case like Christian Encarnacion-Strand serving as a reminder of how quickly things can change after a trade to the Baltimore Orioles.
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Reds Are Headed Toward An Elly De La Cruz Dilemma
At the Reds end-of-season press conference, owner Phil Castellini backed general manager Nick Krall and, in the process, put a spotlight on the next big question hanging over the club: how to handle Elly De La Cruz. The shortstop just finished his first 30-30 season, and his climb from young star to one of the most important players in the organization has only made the long-term conversation more urgent.
Castellini made clear that any decision on De La Cruz, whether it involves a contract extension or something else, has to fit into the franchises broader plan. That is where the tension starts to build for Cincinnati, because De La Cruzs value is soaring at exactly the same time his cost is about to rise, leaving the Reds to weigh whether they can keep him in the fold on their terms or whether the market around him becomes too difficult to ignore. [Read more 🡒]