The Reds’ trade for Ke’Bryan Hayes already looked shaky. Now it looks even worse.
Cincinnati landed the third baseman from Pittsburgh last July in a division swap that sent left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers and shortstop prospect Sammy Stafura to the Pirates. At the time, the logic was easy enough to see: the Reds were buying a Gold Glove-caliber defender at third base. Instead, Hayes has been such a disappointment that Cincinnati almost certainly would have moved on already if not for the three years and $23 million still left on his contract.
That alone would make the deal a miss. But the Pirates’ deadline move this week with the Mets pushed the whole thing into uglier territory.
Pittsburgh turned around and shipped Stafura to New York for reliever Luke Weaver, a former Reds pitcher who had become one of the most valuable arms on the market. Weaver posted a 1.84 ERA over 44 innings with the Mets and is under contract through 2027, giving the Pirates a high-leverage reliever for the rest of this season and next year.
Stafura’s stock had climbed fast before the deal. The 21-year-old put together a massive July in High-A, producing a 1.305 OPS, and he had already piled up 20 home runs and 20 steals in just 60 games this season.
That kind of surge made him look like a real top prospect for Pittsburgh. The Mets valued him enough to include cash in the trade to get Weaver across the finish line.
That’s where the Reds can’t help but stare at what might have been.
Hayes has not come close to living up to expectations since arriving in Cincinnati. This season, he’s hitting .145/.202/.250 with a 19 wRC+, while also posting the worst defensive metrics of his career. His chronic back issues returned, and the Reds knew about that problem when they made the deal at last year’s deadline.
Even so, the larger problem is hard to ignore: even when healthy, Hayes does not look like a hitter who can hold down an everyday lineup spot anymore.
Weaver now heads to Pittsburgh, and the fallout leaves Cincinnati with very little room to spin the Hayes trade as anything other than a disaster. The only thing left for the Reds is hoping their front office learned something from betting on a player whose bat has become a liability.
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