Joey Votto has spent plenty of time around the modern game, but he’s making a pretty direct case for something baseball has been chasing away from for years: hits still matter.
That message lands especially hard in Cincinnati, where the Reds have leaned into the three true outcomes and gotten burned by it. They’ve struck out more than anyone else in the league at 25.5%, their 9.3% walk rate sits ninth, and their 203 home runs rank fourth in MLB.
On paper, that sounds like a team built to score in bunches. In reality, it’s produced a 26th-ranked 633 runs and a 72-82 record that leaves them in last place in the NL Central.
Votto’s answer is old-school and blunt: batting average deserves more respect. In an era where the walk has become almost as prized as the hit, and where stats like wOBA and wRC+ are used to capture a fuller picture of offensive value, Votto pushed back in a conversation with Tom Tango, the sabermetrics pioneer known as TangoTiger.
"I always thought of batting average as both the hardest and most important thing to do in the sport. There is nothing more enjoyable than going to the game and watching your fave player get a couple hits," Votto responded on Twitter/X.
He followed that up with a sharper point about what actually plays in a ballpark versus what looks tidy in a model.
"Batting average is a lower tier stat in [Tango's] world. Go to an actual game, observe the efficiency of walks, K’s, and homers and tell me you wouldn’t want to see a few base hits replacing those three true outcomes."
That idea of efficiency matters here. The Reds are dead last in batting average at .230, and that lack of contact has shown up in every corner of the offense. When they do not put the ball in play, they do not force enough action, especially when runners are in scoring position.
The top of the league tells a different story. The Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, and Los Angeles Dodgers - the three best teams in baseball by record - also rank first, second, and third in batting average. That’s not a coincidence the Reds can afford to ignore.
Votto’s own career gives his view some weight. He never won a batting title, and he also never took home a Silver Slugger, despite a resume that includes a career-best .337 average in 2012 and a .296 career mark that would have crossed .300 if not for the two injury-shortened seasons that ended his career. He’s been around enough elite offenses to know what works.
The warning for Cincinnati is simple: a lineup can live by the three true outcomes, but it can also die by them. If the homers aren’t arriving at the right moments, the walks and strikeouts don’t amount to much. That’s been a real problem for the Reds, whose performance with runners in scoring position has been ugly.
So the offseason solution seems pretty clear. Cincinnati needs more contact.
It already has enough power in the mix with Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, and a few others. What it lacks are hitters who can keep the line moving, especially when men are on base.
Stewart has already shown what that looks like in his rookie season. He’s been one of the few Reds who can really handle those spots, hitting for a high average with runners in scoring position and sitting second in the majors with 110 RBIs.
There are caveats, of course. A homer is still worth more than a single, and RBIs depend on someone getting on base ahead of you. But if a hitter consistently delivers in those situations, the totals pile up for a reason.
De La Cruz offers the best version of both worlds. He has already set a new career high with 28 homers and is on pace for career-best numbers in batting average at .284, walk rate at 10.7%, isolated slugging at .233, and on-base percentage at .362.
The Reds obviously can’t build an entire lineup full of players like that. But they do not need to.
They just need fewer empty at-bats, more balls in play, and a little less swing-and-miss. If they can get there, Votto’s point may end up sounding a lot less nostalgic and a lot more practical.
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