Hunter Greene’s Tommy John surgery has already changed the conversation around the Cincinnati Reds, and now it’s putting their 2027 payroll in sharp focus.
Greene is expected to miss the 2027 season. He had the surgery earlier this month, and while there isn’t an exact recovery timetable yet, the usual window runs from 12 to 18 months. Even if he’s nowhere near the mound next year, though, his salary still lands on the books.
That’s the part that really tightens the screws. Greene is set to make $8.3 million in 2026 under the six-year, $53 million extension he signed in 2023, then jumps to $15.3 million in 2027 and $16.3 million in 2028. His deal also includes a $21 million club option for 2029, though whether the Reds pick that up will depend on how he looks after the injury.
Right now, the Reds have only a handful of guaranteed 2027 commitments. Greene is one.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is in at $7 million, Jose Trevino at $5.25 million, and Chase Burns at $2.77 million. If Emilio Pagán exercises his player option, that adds $10 million more.
That puts the guaranteed total at $40.32 million.
And that still doesn’t capture the full picture.
Unless Cincinnati finds a way to move Pierce Johnson through outright waivers, the club is on the hook for a $1 million buyout. Then come the arbitration raises, and those are where the number starts climbing fast.
Matt McLain, after qualifying for Super Two status last offseason, is heading into his first official year of arbitration eligibility. Elly De La Cruz, Andrew Abbott, Noelvi Marte, and Dane Myers are also in line for arbitration. De La Cruz and Abbott, in particular, figure to get paid.
Last offseason, Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams settled at $4.2 million. Gunnar Henderson’s one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles may be a better reference point for De La Cruz, and the truth probably sits somewhere between those two figures.
Abbott is tougher to pin down, but Houston Astros right-hander Hunter Brown’s $5.7 million salary looks like a reasonable guide. McLain, coming off a $2.3 million salary, should see a bump as well.
Together, those three could easily push past $15 million, maybe more.
There are more arbitration cases coming, too. JJ Bleday, Nick Lodolo, Spencer Steer, Tony Santillan, and Graham Ashcraft are all due raises. Sam Moll, Brandon Williamson, and TJ Friedl should also get bumps, although any of those three could be non-tendered this offseason.
Put it all together and the Reds are probably looking at a little over $70 million, maybe $75 million if those fringe names stay on the roster. If Cincinnati simply matches this year’s $128 million payroll, that would leave roughly $50 million to $60 million to work with.
On paper, that sounds workable. In practice, the Reds still have a long shopping list. They’ll need to cover Greene’s rotation spot, replace Tyler Stephenson behind the plate, find offense at the hot corner to offset Hayes’ bat, improve the outfield, reinforce the bullpen, and add at least one more starter, maybe two.
If the Reds also do the unthinkable and extend a qualifying offer to Brady Singer, something they’ve reportedly discussed, that cushion shrinks fast.
Greene’s $15.3 million hit becomes a sunk cost, and it ripples through everything else. For Cincinnati, that means another offseason of bargain hunting - a familiar lane for a fan base that’s seen this movie before.
In Other News...
Several Reds Enter September With Their 2027 Future Suddenly In Doubt
September is arriving with a lot more uncertainty than the Reds probably expected, because several players who were supposed to help define this stretch are now fighting for their place in the clubs longer-term plans. TJ Friedl, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Sam Moll, Michael Toglia, Noelvi Marte, Connor Phillips and Brandon Williamson are all in the spotlight for the same reason: their 2026 production has not matched the kind of value the organization needs, and that puts real pressure on the final weeks of the season.
The Reds are not just sorting out the present tense here, they are staring at a 2027 offseason that could bring significant roster decisions. For some of these players, a strong finish would help steady the conversation and buy more time; for others, the combination of performance and contract considerations could leave the front office weighing changes sooner rather than later. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Face A Costly Infield Problem They Can't Easily Fix
The Reds infield has become one of the clearest reasons their offense has stalled in 2026, with both KeBryan Hayes and Matt McLain leaving too much to be desired at the plate. Hayes, in particular, is in the midst of the worst season of his career, and the contract that runs through 2029 makes him a tough player to move even if Cincinnati wanted to shake up third base. McLain has still offered value with the glove, but the bat has not carried enough weight to make second base feel settled.
For a club trying to build a more reliable lineup, that creates a winter problem without an easy solution. The Reds need more production from the left side of the infield and better overall balance, yet the two spots that need the most attention are tied to players who are either expensive to trade or would not bring much back in return. It leaves Cincinnati weighing how much of the current group can be repaired internally and how much will have to be addressed in ways that are not as simple as a swap. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Suddenly Face Another Lineup Concern With Michael Toglia
Michael Toglias brief run with Cincinnati hit another snag this week when the Reds put him on the injured list retroactive to Aug. 22 after he dislocated his right shoulder in a game. The move forced the club to turn to Triple-A Louisville for depth, with infielder/outfielder Ivan Johnson coming up to fill the roster spot.
Terry Francona said there is some optimism around Toglias recovery, though the next round of testing will help determine how soon he can move forward. For a Reds team trying to keep its lineup intact down the stretch, any absence in the middle of the order or on the bench can complicate the day-to-day mix, and this one now leaves Cincinnati waiting on a clearer timetable. [Read more 🡒]