Yerlin Confidan’s name has barely registered in the broader Reds conversation, but that changed for a moment this week in the Arizona Fall League.
The 23-year-old outfielder, signed as an international free agent in 2019, delivered a loud reminder of his talent for the Peoria Javelinas on Wednesday. He launched a solo homer in the sixth inning, and the ball came off his bat at 106.7 mph. No official distance was listed, but the shot clearly left no doubt it was a monster.
That blast was part of a three-hit day for Confidan, who is now batting .314 with a 1.025 OPS since AFL play opened earlier this month.
Power has never really been the question with Confidan. Different prospect outlets have graded his raw power anywhere from 55 to 70 on an 80-point scale, and his strikeout rate in 2026 sat at 23%, a workable number for a hitter with his kind of pop. He also drew walks at a 9.9% clip, another sign that he can recognize pitches out of the zone.
The bigger issue has been getting the ball off the ground. Since turning pro, Confidan’s ground ball rate has sat around 50%, and that problem has tended to grow worse whenever he moves up a level in the minors.
If he can tilt the ball in the air without giving away too much contact, there’s a path for him to move quickly through the Reds’ system and maybe reach the majors by the end of next season. But that kind of adjustment usually comes with tradeoffs, and more lift can mean more strikeouts and less contact.
The Reds have already seen how tricky these decisions can be. After designating Christian Encarnacion-Strand for assignment this past season, they moved on from one of their biggest power bats, only for him to find his footing with the Baltimore Orioles and look like a key piece for their future. That’s a lesson they’ll want to keep in mind with Confidan.
For now, though, he has to show he can keep building on this AFL surge. Wednesday was a strong step, and if he keeps producing like this through the fall, he could put himself in a much better spot heading into next season.
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That makes the coming offseason feel more consequential than a routine tune-up. The Reds may have to weigh a more deliberate rebuild, the sort of course correction the Cardinals have leaned into before, while also deciding how aggressively to keep pushing with a younger core and which veterans fit into that picture. Even beyond the winter, there is a sense that more of the organizational structure could be reviewed in the years ahead, with the possibility of a different general manager after 2027 hanging over the franchise. [Read more 🡒]