Chase Burns doesn’t need a complete overhaul to start looking like the next NL Central ace in line. He just needs a few meaningful tweaks.
That’s the basic case for the Cincinnati Reds right-hander, who already has the kind of raw stuff that puts him on the radar for future Cy Young conversations. The division has turned into a showcase for elite arms, with Paul Skenes winning the 2025 Cy Young and Jacob Misiorowski entering 2026 as the clear favorite for the award. If Burns is going to join that group in 2027, the path is there - even if it’s still early.
The age and experience gap matters here, but maybe not as much as people think. Entering their own Cy Young seasons, Skenes had logged 133 big league innings, while Misiorowski had only 66. In that sense, Burns is right on schedule for this new wave of hard-throwing starters who are redefining what an ace looks like.
The issue isn’t whether Burns has talent. It’s where the rough edges still show up.
Baseball Savant paints the picture pretty clearly. Burns is below league average in barrel rate, groundball rate and average exit velocity allowed, which means hitters are still doing too much damage when they do make contact.
But that’s only part of the story. He also brings a 32% whiff rate, which sits in the 91st percentile, and a 34.3% chase rate, good for the 85th percentile.
In other words, the bat-missing is already there in a big way.
What he needs now is a deeper pitch mix.
Burns leaned heavily on just two offerings in 2026, with his fastball and slider accounting for nearly 95% of his usage. The problem is that his lone other pitch, the changeup, got hit hard - to the tune of a .476 batting average and .925 slugging percentage.
That ties directly into another concern: left-handed hitters have given him trouble. That’s not unusual for a young right-hander, but it’s a real obstacle if he wants to stay in the Cy Young lane. In 2026, lefties posted a .734 OPS against him.
A more dependable off-speed pitch would help him handle that side of the plate. Another route would be to follow Misiorowski’s lead and add a different fastball to the mix. Misiorowski’s cutter became his second-most effective pitch in 2026, producing +10 run value.
None of that is simple, and none of it is guaranteed. But Burns already has a strong base and the kind of strikeout upside that gives him a real chance. If he can make even modest gains in those problem areas, he’ll be in position to challenge Skenes and Misiorowski at the top of the NL Central pitching pecking order.
In Other News...
Nick Krall Just Reignited Reds Frustration Over Ke'Bryan Hayes
Nick Kralls latest comments around KeBryan Hayes did little to calm the frustration that has followed the third baseman since Cincinnati acquired him. Hayes has been limited by injuries, and his offensive production has slipped far enough that the Reds are still looking at a player whose career numbers remain below average at the plate, even as the organization continues to talk about what he might still become.
For now, the Reds are not planning to move on from Hayes, and the contract situation makes that stance easier to understand. But the bigger question hanging over this is whether Cincinnati can realistically bank on a rebound from a player who struggled so badly in 2026, or whether the front office is simply stuck waiting for a turnaround that has yet to arrive. [Read more 🡒]
Reds Can Easily Picture This Free Agent Fit But The Cost Changes Everything
Ian Happ is one of those free agents the Reds can picture fitting into the room almost immediately. He already has a connection in Cincinnati through assistant hitting coach Anthony Iapoce, who worked with him during their time together with the Cubs, and that kind of familiarity matters when a club is trying to make smart offseason additions. Happ would bring a recognizable bat and a profile that makes sense for a team looking to add stability, but the appeal goes beyond just the numbers on a page.
The problem is that the fit is only part of the equation. Happ is expected to land a multi-year deal, and the Reds have to weigh that against existing salary commitments and a roster that still has multiple needs to address. In a winter where every move has to be measured against both payroll and flexibility, Cincinnati can like the idea of Happ without being able to treat him as an easy answer. [Read more 🡒]
Elly De La Cruz And Sal Stewart Just Changed The Reds Mood
Pete Crow-Armstrongs unanimous MVP win put a bow on the National League awards, but it also offered another reminder of where the Reds are trying to go. Elly De La Cruz finished fourth in the voting after a strong season, giving Cincinnati a legitimate star to build around as the club tries to climb out of a 75-win year and the basement of the NL Central. Around him, the organization also has reason to feel better about its young core, with Spencer Stewart bringing home Rookie of the Year honors.
For a team that spent 2026 searching for traction, that kind of recognition matters because it changes the tone around the roster. De La Cruzs place near the top of the MVP race and Stewarts arrival as an award winner give the Reds something tangible to point to as they look ahead, even if the standings still told a frustrating story. The challenge now is turning individual acclaim into a more complete team result, and that is where the real pressure begins. [Read more 🡒]