Sal Stewart’s rookie year has made him the name most people expect to hear when the National League Rookie of the Year award is announced Monday night. The Reds first baseman put together a loud offensive season, and the raw numbers are impossible to miss: 113 RBIs, third in the league behind only Alec Burleson and Pete Alonso, plus 32 home runs, the second-most ever by a Reds rookie.
That kind of production is exactly why Stewart has become the favorite. Among qualified rookies, he led the NL in RBIs and finished in the top 10 in home runs, doubles, walks, stolen bases, slugging percentage and OPS.
For a 22-year-old in his first full MLB season, that’s a serious résumé. But the award is supposed to recognize the best newcomer, not just the loudest bat, and Stewart’s overall value doesn’t stack up with the other finalists.
The field includes Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt and Mets right fielder Carson Benge, and both made stronger all-around cases. Stewart’s offense was better than theirs, but his impact dropped off hard everywhere else.
Statcast had him in the 77th percentile in batting run value at +14, but his baserunning and defense dragged him down. He finished with -4 baserunning run value, which put him in the fourth percentile, and -4 fielding run value at a position that already offers limited defensive value, landing him in the 21st percentile.
He also came in below league average in chase rate at 32.1%, walk rate at 9% and strikeout rate at 22.1%.
Wetherholt, meanwhile, brought a far more complete profile. His 4.6 fWAR was third among all rookies and the best in the NL, and it placed him 31st in MLB overall.
He was also the best defensive infielder in the game, according to Statcast, ranking in the 100th percentile in fielding run value. He finished second in MLB in outs above average with 25 and runs prevented with 19, trailing only Pete Crow-Armstrong in both categories.
Even with that, he was passed over for the Gold Glove at second base, with the award going to Brice Turang. Wetherholt made just two errors and posted a .996 fielding percentage.
His arm isn’t his calling card, which is why he’s at second instead of shortstop, but his range was elite.
At the plate, Wetherholt didn’t have Stewart’s thunder, but he was plenty effective. His 21.2% chase rate ranked in the 94th percentile, he walked in 10.3% of his plate appearances, and his 16.8% strikeout rate sat in the 77th percentile.
He also graded above league average in xwOBA, hard-hit percentage and xSLG. On the bases, he was efficient too, going 14-for-15 in stolen base attempts, one fewer steal than Stewart.
Benge made his own strong case with a season that looked more and more complete as it went on. He hit .282/.346/.430 with 20 home runs, 65 RBIs and 22 stolen bases, becoming the 18th player in MLB history to post a 20-20 season as a rookie.
His second half was especially strong, as he put up an .844 OPS with nine home runs and 28 RBIs over his final 62 games. He started slowly, managing a .525 OPS in his first 28 games, but he settled in after that and produced an OPS above .800 while driving in at least 10 runs in four of the next five months.
That stretch erased any doubt about whether he could handle the jump from the minors.
Benge also added value in right field. Statcast placed him in the 85th percentile in fielding run value at +8, and he was in the 99th percentile in arm strength and the 100th percentile in arm value.
He led the National League with 10 outfield assists. Like Wetherholt, he contributed in every phase and looked like a five-tool player for New York.
In a Mets season filled with disappointment, his rise may have been the brightest spot in the organization.
Stewart’s numbers will likely carry the night, and he may well be the one who takes home the award. But if that happens, Wetherholt and Benge will have every reason to feel overlooked after putting together more complete rookie seasons.
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