MILWAUKEE - The Cincinnati Reds are running out of runway, and the Milwaukee Brewers keep making the point in the loudest way possible.
A 7-2 loss on June 30 in Milwaukee sent the Reds into July with another punch to the gut, another setback in a season that has tilted badly off course, and another reminder that they still have a long way to go before they can claim they belong with the National League’s top teams. The Brewers, again, had the answers. The Reds, again, did not.
Closer Emilio Pagán was finally back Tuesday after a long hamstring injury, though the Reds never got to use him in a game that slipped away from starter Rhett Lowder in the fourth inning. Milwaukee strung together a flurry of singles and turned the frame into a four-run burst.
Hunter Greene is set to return July 4. The All-Star right-hander, who was supposed to start Opening Day before elbow surgery in March, could give Cincinnati a boost. But the bigger question hangs over everything: boost for what, exactly?
Since that strong 20-11 start that put them in first place through April, the Reds are 19-34. Only the Colorado Rockies have been worse in that stretch. The latest loss left Cincinnati 13 1/2 games behind the first-place Brewers and six games out of the two teams tied for the final wild-card spot.
There are 78 games left, but only 11 before the All-Star break, a stretch that could matter a great deal when the front office weighs the Aug. 3 deadline. The Reds also sit with only three National League clubs owning worse overall records, which tells you how much ground they’ve lost.
The ugly part gets uglier inside the division. Cincinnati is 4-19 against NL Central opponents and has not beaten the Brewers or the second-place Cubs, going 0-9 combined against those two teams. Milwaukee is 0-5 against the Reds, and Chicago is 0-4.
There are still bright spots, even if they’re not enough to change the big picture. Sal Stewart drove in both Reds runs Tuesday and continues to look like a Rookie of the Year candidate.
Chase Burns, the young starter who is 9-1 with a 2.36 ERA, remains on track to face Brewers sensation Jacob Misiorowski in the finale of the Milwaukee series. Greene and Pagán could also help Cincinnati be more competitive after the break.
But the overall problem is impossible to ignore. The Reds don’t defend well enough.
They don’t score enough. Their bullpen health remains shaky even with Pagán back.
And the Brewers have spent five years reminding them how far they still are from matching that level of consistent small-market baseball.
Maybe that’s having somebody’s number. Maybe it isn’t.
“I don’t ever feel that,” manager Terry Francona said. “I remember people saying that in high school.
I don’t feel like that. They played better than us.”
Whatever label you want to slap on it, the numbers are brutal: six straight losses dating to last year, a 50-19 mark against the Reds since July 2021, and a chance to make it 15 series wins in the last 16 if Milwaukee takes one of the next two.
So, yes, happy 4th of July.
And wait'll next year.
In Other News...
Carlos Jorge Is Forcing A Reds Decision They Can't Delay
Carlos Jorge has turned Double-A Chattanooga into a proving ground, and the Reds cant ignore the way hes changed the conversation around his future. After a rougher stretch in High-A knocked him down the clubs prospect ladder, the outfielder has rebuilt his stock with a more controlled approach at the plate, better contact and far fewer empty swings, all while producing enough impact to matter in games.
The next step now feels unavoidable: Louisville. Cincinnati needs to see whether Jorge can carry this version of himself to Triple-A, because a strong finish there would force a real offseason roster debate and bring his name into 40-man planning before the winter gets complicated. For a player who was in danger of fading, Jorge has done more than resurface - he has put the Reds on the clock. [Read more 🡒]
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Reds Reach A Breaking Point With No More Time To Waste
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There is at least some hope on the roster side. Elly De La Cruz, Emilio Pagn and Hunter Greene are all working their way back from injuries, and the rotation has started to stabilize after a shaky stretch. But the offense remains the real drag, leaving Cincinnati with too many games in which the pitching gives it a chance and the lineup fails to cash it in. If the Reds are going to change the tone of this season, it will have to happen soon, because the margin for error is shrinking with every series. [Read more 🡒]