The NFL MVP market is starting to separate, and two quarterbacks made the sharpest moves after Week 7: Joe Burrow and Caleb Williams.
Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals banked a major division win over the Baltimore Ravens, while Williams kept rolling for the Chicago Bears with another prime-time showing, this one a 300-yard passing performance against the New England Patriots. Both quarterbacks saw their stock climb as the season moved closer to the halfway point, with seven players now listed at +1700 or better and three names - Josh Allen, Brock Purdy and Burrow - sitting inside 5/1.
Williams’ ascent has been one of the more interesting stories in the market. He opened the 2026 season with a strong Week 1 that pushed him all the way up to No. 2 in the MVP odds, but a hamstring injury that cost him three games knocked him back down. Now he’s surging again, and oddsmakers say the betting interest has returned in a big way.
“We definitely are seeing solid play on Williams,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “But we also saw a substantial amount of play on him prior to the season starting, and so the liability is certainly building.
The Bears' offense has returned to full strength, so that's giving him a shot to win. And then we're pricing him as a true contender now, at 17/1.
Remember, he was the second favorite before the injury, so he was right in the mix. And now that everything's back to normal, he's certainly in that mix again.”
Through four games, including three he finished, Williams has 1,020 passing yards, five touchdown passes and one interception. He’s also added two rushing touchdowns, and in every game he has started and finished, Chicago has scored at least 30 points.
Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, said Williams has been a popular bet since his return.
“He's been our second most popular selection since he came back, only trailing Josh Allen,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “So, he has been hugely popular, and that could be for a variety of reasons, including just him playing for the Chicago Bears, along with their own team success.
“But for a player like him, his resume becomes pretty tough to get near the top, and the reason being is that as good as he may play in 14 games, Josh Allen will likely have a stronger resume in 17 - or whoever the healthy quarterback ends up being that is able to play 17 on a good team that has good numbers.
“So, in order for him to really have a chance at the award, he'd need to have an outstanding 14-game stretch. And he can't really afford to miss another game, so that's also something that is priced in at the minute. So while what he's doing is likely MVP-worthy or near that echelon, it's the fact that he needs to be pretty much perfect.”
A FanDuel trader echoed that missed games could be a real factor when voters look at Williams’ final numbers.
"Williams’ missed games impact the odds because his raw counting stats at the end of the year will matter to a lot of voters,” a FanDuel trader told Sports Illustrated. “He's been popular since the offseason, but he's moving up due to the Bears looking better and more likely to be the No. 1 seed."
That seed race may end up being Williams’ clearest path. Chicago is 5-2 and has a big primetime game against Seattle in Week 8, with the possibility of catching Purdy’s 49ers for the top spot in the NFC.
Burrow’s climb has been even more dramatic over the last week. He threw four touchdown passes against Baltimore, but the game was a roller coaster in the books because so much of his damage came after halftime.
“We have this up during the games, and we're constantly adjusting it all day long on a Sunday,” Avello said. “So, Burrow was 10/1 before playing last week, and then he went as high as 15/1 after the first half.
And then, with this outstanding second half he had, we moved his current price to +450. You know, he was certainly taking some money at that time.”
Burrow has played in six games this season, and the Bengals are 4-2 with a real shot at winning the AFC North. He has 1,653 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and three interceptions, and he’s completing more than 71 percent of his throws.
That team success has pushed him into the heart of the MVP discussion.
"The Bengals beat the Ravens and now have a much better chance at winning the division, which is what drove the majority of Burrow's move,” a FanDuel trader told Sports Illustrated. “He also threw for four touchdowns, which cuts his price as well."
Cincinnati gets a favorable Week 8 matchup against the one-win Titans, another opportunity for Burrow to keep stacking numbers and strengthen his case.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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