The Bengals have spent this offseason trying to shore up the defense and push themselves back into true Super Bowl contention. That work matters, but it hasn’t quieted the biggest question hanging over Cincinnati: what happens with Joe Burrow?
There have been rumors about Burrow potentially forcing his way out of Cincinnati, and the possibility could become real if 2026 goes badly. If that nightmare scenario ever plays out, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell laid out what the Bengals might be able to get back for their franchise quarterback.
“Four first-round picks: QB Joe Burrow,” Barnwell writes. “If Burrow does try to force his way out of Cincinnati in the years to come, though, we might get a sense of what a truly elite quarterback in the prime of his career might actually land in terms of a trade return.”
Barnwell later added that “four first-round picks and maybe a Day 3 pick feels like it would be the right return given what Watson landed the Texans.”
That comparison points back to the Houston Texans’ trade of Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns, a deal that brought Houston three first-round picks. By Barnwell’s estimate, Burrow would likely top that by at least one first-rounder.
It’s a massive number, but Burrow is a massive player. If the Bengals ever had to move him, a package built around four first-round picks would at least give them a real path to rebuild the roster, find a new quarterback and keep moving.
Barnwell’s projection isn’t the biggest trade return in the league, but it would still be a significant haul for Cincinnati. And while losing Burrow would be far from ideal, the Bengals could do a lot with that kind of draft capital.
The Texans have shown that a deal like Watson’s can help a team recover over time, and Cincinnati could try to follow a similar path if it ever came to Burrow. Barnwell’s estimate also makes sense given that Burrow is 29 years old and has dealt with injury issues, even if his ceiling keeps him among the most valuable players in football.
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