The Week 4 matchup between the Jaguars and Bengals has the feel of a tight AFC measuring stick game, and the line says as much. Cincinnati is favored by just 2.5 points, even with Jacksonville carrying a 2-1 record and coming off its most complete performance of the young season.
Jacksonville heads to Cincinnati after flattening the New England Patriots in Week 3, a win that pushed the Jaguars to No. 1 in the league in EPA/Pass on defense. That kind of showing doesn’t happen by accident.
The Jaguars have now put together three solid outings, with dominant wins over Cleveland and New England and a narrow loss to Denver in Week 2. In that Broncos game, Jacksonville controlled much of the action before fading late in a tough road setting.
Trevor Lawrence has been a big reason the Jaguars have looked so sharp. He has seven touchdown passes and just two interceptions this season, and he’s played like a different quarterback since the second half of the 2025 season.
The bigger picture matters too: after winning the AFC South at 13-4 in 2025, Jacksonville has started 2026 looking every bit like a real contender again. Right now, it’s the only team above .500 in the division.
Cincinnati comes in at 2-1 as well, but the Bengals are trying to bounce back from a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers that snapped a two-game winning streak. That defeat also exposed a defense that had started the season so well it had climbed into the top 10 in EPA/Play, only to stumble badly against Aaron Rodgers and company. Rodgers threw three touchdowns in that game.
The Bengals still have star power, and Ja’Marr Chase is the name that jumps out most in this matchup. He’s up to 18 catches for 185 yards and three touchdowns this season, including nine receptions for 98 yards and a score in Week 3. After a quiet opener, Chase has now posted 75 receiving yards in back-to-back games, and Joe Burrow should keep feeding him against a Jacksonville defense that has been excellent but did allow Jaylen Waddle to go for 100 yards in Week 2.
That said, Jacksonville’s defense is in a different place now than it was a couple weeks ago. After holding New England to six points, the Jaguars are fourth in the NFL in EPA/Play and eighth in success rate. They also made Drake Maye look like a backup quarterback in Week 3.
There’s also an offensive comparison worth noting. Cincinnati’s wins over Tampa Bay and Houston looked strong at the time, but those teams are now a combined 0-6 in 2026. And on the stat sheet, the Bengals trail Jacksonville in EPA/Play and yards per play this season, with the Jags fifth in EPA/Play and Cincinnati ninth.
So while the Bengals are the home favorite, the number is short enough to make Jacksonville appealing. The Jaguars have earned respect with the way they’ve played through three weeks, and getting 2.5 points in a game this close feels like the sharper side.
In Other News...
Bengals Legend Blames One Reckless Decision For Steelers Loss
The Bengals loss to the Steelers has been picked apart from plenty of angles, but T.J. Houshmandzadeh zeroed in on one third-quarter sequence he changed the feel of the game. Speaking on the Speakeasy podcast, the former Cincinnati receiver blamed the decision to try to block a punt, a gamble that instead produced a roughing the kicker penalty and handed Pittsburgh a fresh break in a tight spot.
Houshmandzadeh called the call reckless, arguing that the odds of successfully blocking a punt in the NFL are so slim that the risk rarely justifies the reward. That backdrop matters because blocked punts remain one of the leagues rarest plays, with only 59 since 2020, which only sharpens the scrutiny on a decision that left the Bengals paying for a mistake rather than cashing in on one. [Read more 🡒]
Dalton Risner Saw One Bengals Positive Even In That Final Chaos
The Bengals had one last chance to steal the game from Pittsburgh, and it ended in the kind of scramble that leaves an offensive lineman replaying every second. Joe Burrow was sacked and fumbled on Cincinnatis final offensive snap, with the Steelers coming away with the recovery to close out the game in chaos.
Even in that finish, Dalton Risner found a silver lining for Cincinnati. The right guard pointed to tight end Erick All for the way he kept fighting for the loose ball after the official recovery, a small detail in a messy ending that at least showed the Bengals were still playing hard to the final whistle. [Read more 🡒]
Bengals Face A Stretch That Could Change Everything Before Madrid
The Bengals Week 3 loss to the Steelers only sharpened the focus on what comes next, because the road before the trip to Madrid looks like the kind of stretch that can define a season. Cincinnati is staring at a run of games against the Jaguars, Dolphins, Ravens and Titans, a mix that tests everything from pass rush and coverage to the ability to stay steady while injuries and coaching decisions continue to shape the week-to-week outlook.
Jacksonville and Miami bring their own challenges, while Baltimore always raises the stakes for Cincinnati in a division race that leaves little margin for error. Tennessee can be a different kind of test, but the bigger question is whether the Bengals can use this stretch to reset their footing before the spotlight shifts overseas, or whether the issues that surfaced against Pittsburgh keep following them into October. [Read more 🡒]