ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently took a swing at one of the league’s favorite what-ifs: what would NFL stars actually fetch in a trade? For the Bengals, the answer starts at the top with Joe Burrow, who Barnwell pegged as worth at least four first-round picks.
That’s the kind of number that sounds almost theoretical, because Cincinnati would be staring down an offer for the player Barnwell views as arguably the most important in franchise history and the only quarterback to guide the Bengals to two AFC Championship appearances. Barnwell pointed to the Browns’ massive Deshaun Watson deal - six picks, including three first-rounders - as the closest recent comparison.
"Burrow doesn't have many of the same concerns that came with Watson at the time of the deal," Barnwell hammered home. "He's older than Watson was at the time of the trade, as he is turning 30 in December.
He has also had injuries affect his 2023 and 2025 campaigns, and he has had a significant knee injury in the past. I do not doubt that somebody would be willing to offer a record-setting deal for Burrow if he were ever going to be traded, but four first-round picks and maybe a Day 3 pick feel like it would be the right return given what Watson landed the Texans."
Ja’Marr Chase was next, and Barnwell placed the star receiver at two first-round picks. That price tag would still be a massive haul for a player Cincinnati would almost certainly never move, especially given how Chase has produced since entering the league. Even in a season interrupted by injury, he still cleared 1,000 receiving yards.
"This would be a lot to pay for a wide receiver already making just over $40 million per season, but Chase has been remarkably productive since entering the league and just turned 26 in March. Even while missing a chunk of his second season due to injury, Chase has more receiving yards through his age-25 season than any player in NFL history besides Justin Jefferson," Barnwell argued.
Barnwell also slotted Tee Higgins, Dexter Lawrence II, and DJ Turner II at one first-round pick apiece. Higgins’ injury history and contract situation were part of the reasoning, while Turner earned praise for a strong 2025 season on a defense that otherwise disappointed.
"Higgins has repeatedly struggled with frustrating injuries over the past few seasons, and with a significant contract on the books, I'm not sure there would be the same sort of market for him as there was a year or two ago," Barnwell wrote. "Turner took a big step forward on an otherwise disappointing defense in 2025 and was one of the league's best cover corners. Another season like that and he would be worth even more, although the Bengals will need to sign their former second-round pick to an extension to avoid losing him for free."
Lawrence’s value, meanwhile, lines up with a deal Cincinnati already made in April, when the Bengals traded the 10th pick in the 2026 NFL Draft straight up for him.
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