The AFC North picture has flipped again, and this time the Bengals are the team sitting on top of ESPN’s latest projection model.
After the Browns’ upset win over the Ravens on Sunday, Cincinnati jumped to the front of the division race at 40.7%, with Baltimore close behind at 39.2%. The Steelers sit at 15%, while the Browns, despite being 4-2, are listed at 5.1%.
That sets up a pivotal stretch for the Bengals, starting with a trip to Baltimore this week. A win there would give Cincinnati a direct boost in the division race before the team moves on to the Titans and then a Week 9 trip to Madrid to face the Falcons. With the bye week giving the Bengals time to get healthy, the path ahead looks manageable enough that a 3-0 run is very much in play.
The schedule around them may help, too. The Browns and Steelers meet in Week 8, while the Ravens head to Buffalo to face the Bills and then return home to play the Jaguars in Week 9. If Cincinnati takes care of business against Baltimore, the Bengals could head into Week 10 at 6-2, which would set up a matchup with the Steelers on Sunday Night Football that could decide the division.
Pittsburgh could be in the same 6-2 neighborhood by then. The Steelers get the Saints next week before facing the Browns after that.
Still, Baltimore remains the biggest hurdle in Cincinnati’s way. Even after the loss to Cleveland, the Ravens still look like the most dangerous threat in the division. Lamar Jackson has missed the last two weeks, but all signs point to his return this week when Joe Burrow and the Bengals come to town.
The numbers behind Jackson and Derrick Henry tell the story. Jackson has beaten the Bengals 11 times in his career and lost to them only three times. Henry has been a problem for Cincinnati as well, piling up 320 rushing yards and three touchdowns in four meetings with the Bengals during his time in Baltimore.
If Cincinnati wants to make a real push this season, it starts with showing it can slow both of them down. The offseason addition of Dexter Lawrence should matter here, and this matchup may be as important as any game he’s played in so far this year.
If the Bengals can go into Baltimore and win, the ripple effect could be huge. Beating the Ravens in their own stadium and dropping them to 4-3 would give Cincinnati a major lift heading into the next two weeks and could set the stage for a strong November and December run.
Here are the projections to win the AFC North entering Week 7: Bengals (3-2): 40.7%
Ravens (4-2): 39.2% Steelers (4-2): 15%
Browns (4-2): 5.1%
Source: ESPN Analytics
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