Bengals’ Playoff Hopes on Life Support After Defensive Collapse in Buffalo
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. - The Bengals' season has been teetering on the edge for weeks, and Sunday’s 39-34 loss to the Bills might have been the final push over the cliff. At 4-9, Cincinnati’s playoff hopes are now hanging by a thread - just a 1% chance, mathematically - and the path forward requires a perfect storm: they need to win out, and hope both Pittsburgh (7-6) and Baltimore (6-7) stumble down the stretch to force a rare three-way tiebreaker atop the AFC North.
That’s a tall order for any team, let alone one trying to find its footing with a banged-up quarterback and a defense that can’t seem to get out of its own way.
Burrow Battles, But Mistakes Prove Costly
Joe Burrow’s return from a turf toe injury has been admirable, but expecting perfection from a quarterback still regaining full form was always going to be unrealistic. And on Sunday, the margin for error proved razor-thin. Burrow threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns in snowy conditions, but two interceptions - including a brutal pick-6 - helped swing the game in Buffalo’s favor.
That first interception, a 63-yard return for a touchdown by Bills cornerback Christian Benford, came on a corner blitz where Benford jumped the hot read. It was the sixth pick-6 of Burrow’s career, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. The second pick was off a tipped pass, but by then, the damage was done.
Burrow’s postgame comments reflected both frustration and resolve.
“Obviously, we’re not where we want to be, as a team or an organization, 4-9 is not good,” Burrow said. “But we got four games to go and show high-level execution, high-level playmaking. I’m going to relish the opportunity to go out and play with these guys, and continue to try to put on a show for everybody watching.”
Defensive Woes Resurface - Again
This was the seventh time in the last two seasons - and third time this year - that Cincinnati has scored 30 or more points and still lost. That’s not just bad luck. That’s a defense that’s leaking oil at the worst possible times.
In fact, the Bengals just made some unfortunate history: they’re the first team to lose at least three games in back-to-back seasons while scoring 34-plus points. Only two other teams in NFL history - the 2002 Chiefs and 1985 Chargers - have done it in a single season.
After two weeks of modest improvement, the run defense regressed hard. The tackling was sloppy, the gaps were wide, and Buffalo took full advantage.
The Bills racked up 183 rushing yards, with both James Cook and Josh Allen going for 78+ on the ground. Allen’s 17-yard scramble on a third-and-15 with under two minutes left was a backbreaker - not just because it sealed the win, but because it was emblematic of the Bengals’ defensive struggles all year.
According to Pro Football Focus, Cincinnati missed 13 tackles in the game - just one fewer than their combined total from the previous two weeks. Safety Geno Stone, who already led the league in missed tackles coming into the game, added three more to his tally, including a costly whiff on Allen’s late scramble.
Big Numbers, But Not Enough
There were bright spots. Cincinnati was lights-out on third down, converting 10 of 12 attempts - an 83.3% clip that marks their best third-down performance since 1991.
That kind of efficiency usually wins you games. But when the defense gives it right back, it becomes a moot point.
Tight end Mike Gesicki had his best game of the season, hauling in six catches for 86 yards and his first touchdown. He was a reliable target in the middle of the field and gave Burrow a much-needed safety valve.
Still, the defense’s inability to cover tight ends remains a glaring issue. Buffalo’s tight ends combined for 11 catches, 137 yards, and two touchdowns - a continuation of a season-long problem that Cincinnati has yet to solve.
Injuries Continue to Pile Up
The Bengals were already thin on defense, and the injury list isn’t getting any shorter. Defensive end Trey Hendrickson missed his fifth straight game with a hip/pelvis issue.
Cornerback PJ Jules exited Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. Wide receiver Tee Higgins, who returned after two concussion evaluations, has re-entered concussion protocol after reporting symptoms postgame.
Key Numbers Tell the Story
- 1-8: Cincinnati’s record in out-of-division games this season. That’s a brutal stat for a team trying to make a wild-card push.
- 60.8%: The drop in Cincinnati’s win probability after Burrow’s pick-6 - from 77% to 16.2%. That’s the largest win probability swing on a play outside the final two minutes of a game since 2016.
What’s Next
The Bengals return home to host Baltimore in a critical AFC North clash. The Ravens are 6-7 after a tough loss to Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati will try to complete a season sweep after a dominant 32-14 win in Baltimore on Thanksgiving night. It’s a must-win, not just for the sliver of playoff hope that remains, but for pride - and to prove that this team still has some fight left in it, even in a lost season.
The margin for error is gone. The Bengals will need to play near-flawless football the rest of the way - and get a little help - if they want to keep the postseason dream alive. But for now, the focus shifts to regrouping, responding, and trying to finish strong.