The Bengals may be sitting in a tricky spot in the AFC North, but a sharp statistical model still likes them as much as anyone in the conference.
Cincinnati improved to 3-2 with Sunday’s 31-24 win over the Miami Dolphins, heading into its Week 6 bye on a high note. Joe Burrow was the engine, throwing four touchdowns in a highly efficient outing, while Malik Willis struggled on the other side with two interceptions.
That victory, though, didn’t move the Bengals up in the division standings. They’re still at the bottom of the AFC North after five weeks, with the Ravens sitting at 4-1 and both the Browns and Steelers at 3-2. Cincinnati is also 0-1 inside the division.
Even with that, the Bengals remain in the mix as one of the teams most people around the league see as Baltimore’s main threat in the North. And when you zoom out to the full conference, the usual heavy hitters are all making noise again. The Bills are now 4-1 after a dramatic overtime win against the LA Rams, the Chiefs stayed unbeaten through their bye week, and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens continue to look like a team built to win big.
That sets up the possibility of seeing Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jackson all back in the playoffs together. Cincinnati just has to hold up its end.
The Opta Supercomputer says the Bengals are doing enough to stay near the top of the AFC conversation. Earlier this season, it pegged Cincinnati as the second-favorite team in the conference, behind only last year’s Super Bowl runners up the New England Patriots.
Even after two straight losses before this week, the Bengals still rate highly. Opta gives Cincinnati a 6.83% chance to win the AFC, narrowly ahead of Baltimore at 6.80%, with Kansas City at 5.15% and Buffalo at 5.10%.
It gets even better for Cincinnati in Opta’s adjusted rankings. The supercomputer has the Bengals as the top team in the AFC in its Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster, or TRACR, based on how they’ve performed so far and the shape of the rest of their schedule.
That might sound surprising after losses to Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, but the model clearly isn’t ignoring the bigger picture. In both of those games, Cincinnati had a path to winning.
If the Bengals were 5-0 instead of 3-2, they’d be getting talked about as one of the best teams in football. Heading into the bye, there’s still plenty for them to feel good about.
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The Bengals made a notable linebacker move this week, adding Jack Kiser after his brief run with Jacksonville and turning to a player who already has familiarity with defensive coordinator Al Golden from their Notre Dame days. Kiser arrives with some college credibility and a built-in connection to Cincinnatis staff, the kind of detail that can matter when a team is sorting through midseason depth and trying to find players who can absorb the system quickly.
His arrival also comes at a time when the Bengals needed reinforcement at the position, with Swayze Bozeman sidelined after the forearm injury he suffered in Week 5. Cincinnati is clearly looking for a workable answer at linebacker, and Kisers background gives this claim a little more intrigue than a typical waiver move, even if the real test now is how fast he can translate that familiarity into a role on Sundays. [Read more 🡒]
Zac Taylors Dexter Lawrence Remark Says Everything About His Bengals Impact
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The move to acquire him from the Giants was already viewed around the league as a sharp offseason pickup, and the Bengals made it clear they wanted more than a short-term boost by working out a one-year extension. For a defense that needed more disruptive power up front, Lawrence has quickly become one of the most important additions on the roster, even if there is still a bigger long-term cost attached to the trade that Cincinnati will have to live with. [Read more 🡒]
Amarius Mims Has One Strange Problem Bengals Can't Ignore
Amarius Mims has given the Bengals exactly what they want on the field this fall, holding up well against some of the leagues top defenders at right tackle and helping Cincinnati get to a 3-2 start. Off the field, though, the rookie has run into a problem that has become hard to ignore: his cleats keep failing him in the middle of games, turning a promising early season into something of an equipment headache.
The issue has already surfaced more than once, and Mims has gone public in asking shoe manufacturers for a better answer. It is the kind of oddly specific snag that can still matter for a team trying to build momentum, especially with roster churn around him after the Bengals added Jack Kiser and put Swayze Bozeman on injured reserve. For now, the blocking is strong, but the footwear situation remains a loose end Cincinnati would rather not keep revisiting. [Read more 🡒]