The AFC could be staring at an odd January twist: its title game potentially landing in a half-finished stadium with a much smaller crowd than anyone expects for a conference championship.
That scenario starts with Jacksonville, which is sitting at 3-1 after beating the Browns, Patriots, and Bengals. The Jaguars still have a real path to the AFC’s top seed, and if they get there, the conference championship game would run through their home building.
NBC Sports insider Mike Florio pointed out that Jacksonville is in position to chase the No. 1 seed, and the setup is friendlier than it might look at first glance. The Jaguars have six division games left, and the Colts, Texans, and Titans are a combined 2-10.
Jacksonville’s next two games come in London, against the injury-riddled Eagles and the disappointing Texans. More difficult trips remain at Baltimore, Chicago, and Dallas, but Florio described much of the rest of the schedule as winnable.
The catch is the stadium situation. The Jaguars are playing through a renovation, and capacity is already far below a normal NFL bowl.
That is not speculation - it is happening now. If Jacksonville reaches the AFC’s biggest stage at home, the building could hold only 42,000 fans for a pair of postseason games, according to Florio.
“If they do, there could be a pair of postseason games with only 42,000 fans in attendance. Which won’t be conducive to maximizing ticket revenues (or crowd noise) for the games, but that’s one of the realities of actively renovating a stadium while the team is still playing there.”
Florio also noted that, even with the reduced capacity, Jacksonville’s setup still beats sending the AFC title game to places like Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore, or Cleveland. The Chiefs are 4-0, but they are also navigating a tough AFC West, so the road to the top seed is not locked up anywhere.
The smaller crowd would create a different kind of home-field issue than the ones fans have already complained about elsewhere. Other new stadiums have drawn criticism this season for obstructed views and steep ticket prices. Jacksonville’s problem, if it gets there, would be simpler: fewer seats, less noise, and a smaller gate for the biggest home game of the year.
For now, it remains a projection. A loss in London or a stumble on the road could wipe out the whole path. But if the Jaguars keep winning, the AFC championship game could end up in a construction zone, with a conference title on the line and only 42,000 people in the stands.
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