The Cincinnati Bengals are stepping into their toughest test of the season so far when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, and the matchup starts with the quarterback duel. Trevor Lawrence has never had success in topping Joe Burrow, though the Bengals have also beaten Jacksonville twice with Jake Browning under center.
Lawrence is playing well enough on film, but the numbers say Cincinnati can make life uncomfortable for him if it brings heat. He has a 57.5 passer rating against the blitz, which ranks 30th in the league, and his 5.1 yards per attempt versus extra rushers ranks 28th. Jacksonville has also had trouble protecting him when defenses send pressure, with 53% of blitzes turning into pressures, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL.
That pressure has led to mistakes and hurried decisions. Lawrence is throwing into tight windows 22% of the time when blitzed, the sixth-highest rate among quarterbacks, and PFF has him at five “Turnover Worthy Plays” already, a 5.3% rate that also ranks sixth in the league.
When he’s pressured, the chances for the Bengals defense to create plays go up. Lawrence has completed just 9-of-27 pressured dropbacks this season, with four throwaways, four sacks and a 47.6 PFF grade.
Jacksonville’s protection issues run beyond the quarterback. The Jaguars are 30th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate and 27th in PFF’s Pass Block Efficiency.
Rookie left guard Emmanuel Pregnon has shown flashes, but he ranks 46th out of 59 guards in PFF’s True Pass Set blocking grade at 35.3. Veteran center Robert Hainsey has also struggled, posting a 40.2 pass blocking grade in True Pass Sets, which ranks 26th among centers.
The Jaguars also bring one of the slowest offenses in football. They take 33.1 seconds per play, the longest time per snap in the NFL, which means Cincinnati may not see a ton of possessions.
That makes efficiency even more important, and it also helps explain why the Jaguars have never won a game when the Over/Under is above 49 points. They are 0-29 in those games, and this matchup qualifies again.
On offense, the Bengals should look to the middle of the field. Cincinnati throws there on 26.2% of its attempts, the fifth-highest rate in the league, and Jacksonville has been crushed in that area, allowing the worst EPA in the NFL over the middle at +1.03. The Jaguars do not get tested there often because they use single-high safety looks at the 12th-highest rate in the league, 39.2%.
Where they do get stressed is on deep shots with that safety in the middle. Opponents have gone deep on 16.9% of throws against Jacksonville, the third-highest rate in the NFL. That’s a dangerous matchup for the Jaguars, because the Bengals lead the league in EPA per play on deep passes at +2.59.
Big plays have been a problem for Jacksonville all season. The Jaguars have allowed an explosive play on 11% of their defensive snaps, the sixth-highest rate in the league, while Cincinnati is producing explosives at the ninth-best rate in football, 10.3% of the time.
Some of that stems from Jacksonville’s own pass rush approach. The Jaguars blitz, but they are not getting home, generating pressure on just 37.9% of those blitzes, the eighth-lowest rate in the league. That leaves more defenders in coverage and fewer answers when the rush doesn’t land.
The front four is supposed to be a strength, but the results haven’t matched the reputation. Jacksonville ranks 27th in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate.
Travon Walker ranks 22nd and Josh Hines-Allen 23rd in PFF’s Pass Rush Win Rate among edge rushers. Inside, Arik Armstead has a 4.6% pass rush win rate, which ranks 35th of 38 defensive tackles, and his running mate Rule Orhorhoro is at 2.6%, good for 77th of 82 interior defensive linemen.
The Jaguars lean on stunts to manufacture pressure, so Cincinnati’s offensive line will have to sort those out.
If Burrow gets time, the Bengals should also be able to work outside. Jacksonville’s boundary trio of Travis Hunter, Jarrian Jones and Montaric Brown has been targeted 38 times and has allowed 25 catches for 439 yards. The group has surrendered only one touchdown, but it has also been flagged four times.
There are issues on the back end too. Veteran Eric Murray has already missed four tackles, and his 40% missed tackle rate along with his 27.5 tackling grade from PFF is the worst among starting safeties in the league.
Jacksonville also leans on a light box, using that look on 49.1% of snaps, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. Cincinnati has thrived against that style, ranking fourth in EPA per play at +0.41 when facing light boxes.
The Jaguars are a real challenge, and the preparation for this one took the longest of any Bengals opponent so far. Still, the path for Cincinnati is clear: keep the game tight, force Jacksonville to earn every yard, and let Burrow decide it late.
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