The Bengals are walking into Week 5 with a real chance to reset things, and the matchup in Miami looks tailor-made for a rebound. The Dolphins are 0-4, their offense is sputtering badly, and the numbers around both sides of the ball point toward Cincinnati having plenty of ways to take control.
Start with Miami’s quarterback situation, because that’s where the whole thing begins to unravel. Through four games, Malik Willis has not given the Dolphins much to build on.
He’s sitting with the 30th-ranked PFF grade among quarterbacks and has completed just 56% of his passes. The pressure has been relentless, but some of that is on him too.
Willis is holding the ball, and the offensive line hasn’t helped either, ranking 27th in Pass Block Efficiency from PFF and 24th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate. However you slice it, being pressured on 46.9% of dropbacks just isn’t a workable number.
Even when the pocket stays clean, the results haven’t improved much. Willis has the lowest completion rate in the league when he isn’t under duress.
At the same time, he is attacking downfield at a huge clip, with a 10.5 Average Depth of Target that leads the NFL. If the deep shot isn’t there, he’s ready to take off.
His 10.9% scramble rate is the highest in the league, and a few of those runs have even been wiped out by penalties elsewhere on the play.
The bigger problem is that Miami’s passing game simply isn’t functioning. The offense owns a 36% Success Rate, worst in the league, and the receivers are struggling to create separation. Their average separation at the catch point is 3.1 yards per attempt, which ranks 27th.
The ground game hasn’t rescued them either. With Devon Achane lost for the season, Miami is now 31st in Running Success Rate at 32.3%.
The Dolphins have leaned on fullback DJ Herman as a lead blocker, but the results have been rough; he has the lowest run blocking grade from PFF among all backs in the NFL. Miami is using 21-personnel at the third-highest rate in the league, yet it’s producing a -0.12 EPA and a 26% success rate on runs.
Like the Bengals, they may need to rethink the fullback approach, especially since they’re averaging only 0.74 yards before contact on rushing plays, which ranks 27th.
Put it together, and Miami’s offense has the worst success rate in the entire NFL.
That gives Cincinnati a clear opening against a defense that has been much weaker against the pass than against the run. Overall, Miami ranks 29th in EPA per play on defense, with the biggest issue showing up in the passing game, where they sit 31st. Their run defense is ninth, but there are still pressure points to attack.
One of the biggest is at tight end. Miami has been leaking production to the position all season, and that should be on the Bengals’ radar.
The Dolphins have allowed 29 catches for 333 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends, and only the Bengals and Detroit Lions have given up more receiving yards to the spot. That’s 29 catches on just 31 targets, meaning opposing quarterbacks are completing 94% of their throws to tight ends.
On average, that comes out to 7 catches and 83 yards allowed per game.
The last week’s example was ugly for Miami. Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson saw 13 targets, caught all 13, and finished with 119 yards.
That opens the door for Mike Gesicki, who is on pace for 47 catches, 659 yards and 13 TDs this season. It also raises the possibility that Erick All Jr. could finally get involved as a receiver.
Miami’s coverage structure may be part of the problem. The Dolphins are second in the league in Cover-6 usage at 22%, and that look has already given up 285 yards on 20 completions.
The middle of the field has been there for the taking, and that fits right into what Cincinnati has done well. The Bengals are averaging the second-most passing yards per game in the league at 122, and their +0.73 EPA per pass ranks fifth.
The matchup gets even better when Miami has to defend shotgun offense. The Dolphins are 25th in EPA per play against shotgun sets and are allowing a 50% success rate and an 81.1% completion rate, both the worst figures in the league.
On third down, it doesn’t improve much. Miami ranks 30th in EPA per play on those snaps, and opponents are seeing their success rate jump to 54.5% with an 83.9% completion rate.
The strange part is that Miami’s run defense has been good despite using extra bodies in the box. The Dolphins are doing it at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, which leaves the back end exposed when they can’t generate enough pressure.
That pressure never really arrives anyway. Miami ranks 27th in pressure rate and 28th in sack rate.
There are also individual defenders Cincinnati can target. Defensive tackle Zach Sieler, once one of Miami’s better players, has a 30.0 PFF run defense grade that ranks 74th among interior defensive linemen through four weeks. Teams are going after him on the ground, and without Kenneth Grant anchoring the middle, that becomes a spot to watch.
In the secondary, rookie safety Michael Taaffe has been struggling badly. The fifth-round pick has a 35.4 PFF grade, which ranks 69th out of 70 starting safeties, and his 25% missed tackle rate stands out for all the wrong reasons.
The Bengals are heavily favored, and the numbers explain why. Still, after two straight losses, there’s understandable caution here. The matchup looks favorable, but it also comes with enough recent Bengals weirdness to keep anyone from getting too comfortable before kickoff.
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For Cincinnati fans, the most relevant nugget sits on the other side of that DFS conversation, where Brown is drawing notice as a running back play with a favorable setup against Miami. The Dolphins have been a soft spot for backs all season, and the case for Brown rests on volume, scoring chances and the kind of offensive environment that can turn a steady workload into a big fantasy day. The only real question is how aggressive managers want to get in a spot that looks inviting, but still leaves room for one more surprise. [Read more 🡒]