The Bengals are laying 3.5 points against the Buccaneers in Week 1, and that number has held steady even as Tampa Bay’s offseason noise keeps getting louder.
That’s the first thing that stands out here: the spread hasn’t budged despite Vita Vea requesting a trade and Baker Mayfield being unhappy with where contract talks stand. DraftKings still has Cincinnati as a 3.5-point favorite, and the market hasn’t treated those developments like game-changers. Either oddsmakers expect the Bucs to sort things out, or they simply don’t see enough of a drop-off to move the line.
There’s also the possibility that the people setting the number aren’t convinced Jake Browning changes the equation all that much if Mayfield isn’t available. That said, Browning’s 2023 stretch still matters enough to keep him in the conversation after he nearly pushed Cincinnati into the playoffs.
The Bengals’ own reputation probably hasn’t helped their case with the public, either. Zac Taylor’s teams have made a habit of slow starts, and last season’s 2-0 opening looks a lot less impressive in hindsight after Cincinnati dropped 11 of its next 15.
Even in that Week 1 win over the eventual one-and-done Jerod Mayo Patriots at Paycor Stadium in 2024, the Bengals showed how shaky those early-season performances can be. That loss wound up costing them a postseason berth.
Still, there’s a clear reason the line points toward Cincinnati: the matchup on the outside. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins can tilt a game by themselves when Joe Burrow is in rhythm, and this is a Tampa Bay defense built to heat up the pocket. Todd Bowles is known for bringing pressure, and if he’s sending extra rushers, that leaves Zyon McCollum and Benjamin Morrison in difficult one-on-one situations against two elite receivers and a sharp quarterback.
That’s a dangerous setup for Tampa, especially with Lavonte David still anchoring the defense and first-round pass-rusher Rueben Bain likely needing time to adjust to the NFL game with his historically short arms. If Bowles is forced to blitz against the best offensive line Burrow has ever had, Cincinnati has the kind of passing-game edge that can break a game open fast.
The total sits at 51.5, which points to a score somewhere around Bengals 28, Buccaneers 24. But this is the kind of matchup where Cincinnati could push well beyond that. Burrow, Chase, Higgins and the rest of the offense have a path to putting up a huge number on Tampa Bay’s secondary.
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