Week 10 brings the NFL into the second half of the 2026 season, and the board is loaded with spread decisions across all 14 games. Here’s how the picks break down for the weekend slate.
The Giants have shown they can handle the lower rung of the league, and the Commanders fit that category. New York may have trouble when tougher opponents show up in the weeks ahead, but at home this is a spot where the Giants should be favored by more than they are.
Detroit’s defense has already been one of the league’s weakest, and now the injury pileup makes things even messier. That opens the door for Drake Maye, who has already shown he can light up shaky secondaries. This one looks like it should stay tight all the way through.
Kansas City gets the edge over Atlanta after the Falcons’ trip to Spain. The Chiefs are starting to resemble their old selves again, and with the ability to run the ball and play defense, they have enough to get past an Atlanta team that has already dealt away two starters before the deadline.
Houston is another team worth backing right now. The defense is trending in the right direction after a rough start, and the offense has quietly become a top-10 group.
C.J. Stroud has also looked like the version of himself from his rookie year.
Green Bay has started to settle in, and Matt LaFleur’s history against Brian Flores’s defense matters here. The Packers should be a difficult home team to deal with the rest of the way.
Jacksonville is looking more and more like the league’s top team. The Jaguars lead the NFL in DVOA and are the only club in the top five in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. Tennessee does not match up well with that.
Indianapolis gets the nod against Miami, especially with Malik Willis now on IR and Kyle McCord stepping in. The Dolphins’ season keeps sliding, while Jonathan Taylor gives the Colts enough firepower to win and cover.
When two NFC South teams meet, the safest move is usually to take the side getting points. That division has a way of turning every matchup into chaos, and this one fits that mold.
Buffalo’s defense still feels like the kind of unit that can trip them up in games they should win. The Bills probably get by the Jets, but laying this many points is too steep for comfort.
Seattle is another team that doesn’t inspire much confidence against the spread, especially away from home. The offense has been bottom 10 in just about every meaningful category, and with Sam Darnold out again, the pick is Fernando Mendoza.
The Rams are in a rough spot. Special teams have been a problem, the defense has not lived up to its standard, and the wide receiver room is depleted. Even with Carson Beck on the other side, this number is too large to trust Los Angeles.
Dallas has enough offense to hang around with San Francisco. The 49ers have had plenty go their way this season, and this looks like the kind of week where the rhythm finally breaks.
Cincinnati is peaking at the right time. The Bengals’ offense has become the best in football, and even though Pittsburgh beat them earlier this season, the timing matters here.
The Bengals usually need a few weeks to find their groove, and now they’re in it. They should handle the Steelers.
The Chargers may not be a great team, but Baltimore’s setup is shaky enough to give them a chance. With Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and a defense that sits below average, this is the week Los Angeles can finally get one.
In Other News...
Bengals May Have Found A Late-Season Edge At The Perfect Time
The Bengals trip to Madrid seems to have landed at exactly the right moment, giving a late-season team that was already rolling a little extra fuel. Players and people around the organization have pointed to the international visit as a boost for bonding and chemistry, the kind of reset that can matter when a locker room is trying to carry momentum into the stretch run. With Cincinnati on a four-game winning streak, the timing could hardly be better as the focus shifts to a key meeting with the Steelers.
There is also a broader backdrop here that makes the moment feel bigger than one road trip. The Bengals have dealt with some external noise around front-office decision-making, including criticism tied to compensatory picks, while a called-off trade involving Arnold Ebiketie added another layer to the conversation. For a team trying to sharpen its edge in December, the question now is whether the chemistry from Madrid can translate into something more tangible when the games get tighter. [Read more 🡒]
Bengals Have A Huge Chance Sunday Night But One Test Looms
Sunday night gives Cincinnati a chance to change the feel of its season in one swing, and the setup is about as good as it gets for a November spotlight game. The Bengals have looked more dangerous on offense since their Week 3 meeting with Pittsburgh, with the quarterback-wide receiver trio giving them a much steadier ceiling, while the defensive line has been better equipped to affect the game at the point of attack.
Still, the matchup is not without a real stress point. The Steelers can make life uncomfortable if Cincinnatis secondary is exposed, and that is the one area that could decide whether this becomes a statement win or just another missed opportunity in a crowded playoff race. With national TV attention and postseason positioning on the line, the Bengals know this is the kind of test that can sharpen the picture of where they really stand. [Read more 🡒]
Bengals Are Staring At A Steelers Mismatch They Know Too Well
The Bengals are heading into another divisional meeting with a familiar problem to sort out, and it starts with how Pittsburgh plans to use Darnell Washington. Steelers offensive coordinator Brian Angelicho recently talked up the tight ends role, pointing to the matchup edges Washington brings with his size, strength and value in both the passing game and the run game.
For Cincinnati, the concern is less about one isolated player and more about a season-long issue that has shown up against tight ends. Washington has already emerged as a key part of the Steelers passing attack, and Pittsburgh media expect him to keep having an impact in this one, which leaves the Bengals facing a test they have not handled especially well so far. [Read more 🡒]