Joe Burrow and the Bengals head into Week 5 needing a reset, and Sunday’s trip to face the winless Dolphins looks like the kind of game Cincinnati has to handle cleanly.
The Bengals are coming off a two-game skid and sit at 2-2 after a Week 4 loss to Jacksonville in which both Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) went down. Even with that hit to the receiver room, Burrow still piled up more than 400 passing yards, which is a big reason Cincinnati is expected to go on the road and get back in the win column.
That urgency matters here. The rest of the AFC North is either 2-2 or better through four weeks, so a loss to a Miami team that has yet to win would be a serious setback for the Bengals’ playoff path.
The betting market has already moved a bit in Cincinnati’s direction. The Bengals opened as 7.5-point favorites, but that number has come down to seven with Chase and Higgins banged up. The total has also dropped from 43.5 to 42.5.
SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan, who is working through his Road to 272 by picking every game each week, is backing Cincinnati to cover.
“The Bengals have looked completely average to begin the season, but we can forgive them based on their schedule. Three of their first four opponents have come against playoff teams from a season ago, and their fourth was a Buccaneers team that entered the season as favorites to win their division. Now, they finally have a bad team to beat up on, and even if they don't have both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins back in the lineup, I have confidence in their ability to win and cover in this spot.”
He also pointed to Cincinnati’s defense, which has been more effective than it has been in recent seasons, ranking in the top half of the NFL in both opponent EPA per play and success rate.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have gone the other way. They’ve scored 13 points or fewer in all four games, and they’re sitting in the bottom five of nearly every major metric on both offense and defense. Miami ranks 29th in EPA/Play on offense and 28th in EPA/Play on defense, and with De’Von Achane out for the season, the Bengals don’t appear to be facing much that should keep them from controlling this one.
That’s why the matchup feels like such a strong spot for Cincinnati, even if the injury situation around Burrow’s receivers lingers into Sunday. Against a Miami offense that hasn’t been able to keep pace with anyone, the Bengals have a clear path to a road win and, in the betting view, a cover.
In Other News...
Bengals Get A Familiar Ref Crew For A Game That Could Turn Testy
Brad Rogers will be a familiar face for the Bengals when his crew handles their next game, adding another layer of intrigue to a matchup that already has the feel of one that could get chippy. Rogers is in his 10th season as an NFL referee and his eighth as a head referee, and Cincinnati has seen him plenty before, including his first game as a referee in 2019 and a meeting in Week 14 last season.
For the Bengals, the bigger issue is how this crew tends to operate. Rogers has built a reputation for letting more play go than some of his peers, which can shape the rhythm of a game as emotions rise and both sides push the line. He has not had a postseason assignment in the last two seasons, and his most recent playoff work came in an AFC Wild Card game in the 2023 season, leaving this crew with something to prove in a game that could demand tight control. [Read more 🡒]
Bengals Face A Dangerous Early Test In Miami Despite Dolphins Record
The Bengals are heading into an early road test in Miami with the kind of record that can fool a casual glance. The Dolphins still have not won a game, but they have stayed competitive enough to make this one feel like more than a straightforward trip for Cincinnati, especially with both sides still sorting through the kind of early-season issues that can shape a September run.
For the Bengals, the attention is on how their offense and protection hold up against a Dolphins defense trying to find its footing under new coach Jeff Hafley, who is still chasing his first win. The matchup discussion also points to the individual battles up front, with Cincinnati measuring itself against a Miami group that has several players worth watching even without the benefit of a victory next to its name. [Read more 🡒]
Bengals May Be Getting A Timely Boost In Their Banged Up WR Room
The Bengals banged-up receiver room got a little encouraging news this week, as Colbie Young moved from a limited session on Wednesday to a full practice on Thursday. It was the latest sign that he is trending toward a return soon, and he even got work catching passes from Joe Burrow as he continued to progress.
Young said the injury looked worse at first than it ended up being after X-rays, a relief for a group that has needed bodies and options. He also said he tried to go back in against the Steelers before wide receivers coach Troy Walters kept him out, a small detail that underscored how close he may already be to rejoining the mix. [Read more 🡒]