Connor Orr isn’t buying a smooth Bengals ride in 2026.
In Sports Illustrated’s full run through all 276 NFL regular-season games, Orr landed Cincinnati on the playoff bubble at 9-8, a projection that comes with a rough patch early and another one late. He sees the Bengals dealing with multiple losing streaks, including a 1-4 start and a 1-3 finish.
Orr’s forecast opens with a win over the Buccaneers, then quickly turns sour.
“The start of the 2026 season will be a bit of a disastrous one for the Bengals,” Orr wrote. “After a season-opening win over the Buccaneers, I have the team hitting a panic-inducing skid with losses to the Texans, Steelers, Jaguars and Dolphins. Miami, as we said in the Patriots’ section, could be that strange temperature-spike game that totally gasses the Bengals at the end of a long stretch in which the team will have its work cut out for it.
“It’s fair to assume that in Cincinnati’s first five games, at least three could have the Bengals as listed underdogs or close to it. Of course, true to Joe Burrow form, a mid-to-late-season uptick will have us believing, though it’s ultimately not quite enough for the team to recover as it falls victim to a deep tiebreaker.”
That 9-8 finish would leave Cincinnati out of the field, and Orr also made it clear he doesn’t see the Bengals as a Super Bowl team right now. He pointed to the defense and the run game when explaining why.
“I excluded the Bengals because I felt like this team doesn’t have enough of an attacking defense or the trappings of a truly effective running game,” Orr said about why they can't win the Super Bowl this season. “Bengals fans will fairly argue that Cincinnati was a top-five team in rushing success rate last season with a very multiple run scheme that was building successful, punishing runs with little more than five-man blocking schemes against the likes of Micah Parsons. I think Amarius Mims could finish this season as one of the best right tackles in the NFL.
“So, while I may have been a little unfair and am underrating the fact that this group has been together-and incredibly multiple-while overrating new additions I wish they made that the team did not, the defense still needs to rapidly grow from bottom feeder to sure-tackling, top-15 mainstay to be taken seriously. In that way, maybe my 9-8 prediction is a hedge that the defense will make a Dexter Lawrence II-sized leap, though one that won’t be quite enough. Maybe a Bobby Wagner signing could change my mind.”
There’s another side to this, though. If Cincinnati stays healthy, Joe Burrow included, the idea of a playoff miss starts to look a lot less natural given the schedule and the talent on hand. The Bengals have one of the three easiest slates in the league, and ESPN’s FPI ranks their schedule as the easiest in the NFL.
The offensive line continuity only adds to that case. Cincinnati protected Burrow at a top-10 level over the final six weeks of last season, which is why the roster still looks capable of much more than a 9-8 finish.
That gap in expectations is pretty stark. Oddsmakers, by consensus betting odds, give Cincinnati the eighth-best shot at the NFL’s best record.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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