Houston’s margin for error is gone after Week 9, and that makes Saturday’s home matchup with Cincinnati feel like a must-hold serve. The Cougars have already taken two losses this season, and another setback would leave them with almost no room left if they’re still chasing the Big 12 Championship or the College Football Playoff.
Cincinnati comes in with its own uneven stretch, sitting at 1-3 over its last four games. But that lone win is the kind that gets attention: a victory over Texas Tech, the Big 12 favorite before the Bearcats knocked them off.
If Cincinnati is going to pull another upset, Cole Tabb may have to carry the load again. He’s been the engine of the offense all season, averaging 9.5 yards per carry and scoring 13 total touchdowns.
Two weeks ago against Texas Tech, he ripped off 173 rushing yards and found the end zone twice. Another outing like that could be the difference again.
The better play here looks like the OVER rather than picking a side. Both defenses have had real issues at different points this season.
Cincinnati is 102nd in opponent EPA per play and 120th in defense success rate, while Houston sits 119th and 108th in those same categories. On the other side, both offenses have been efficient enough to rank inside the top 30 in EPA per play.
So the setup points to points in a Big 12 game that should have plenty of scoring chances on both sides.
In Other News...
BYU Faces Its Biggest Holy War Test With Doubts Still Lingering
Week 10 brings one of the biggest Big 12 games on the schedule, with No. 9 BYU heading into a top-25 showdown against No. 3 Utah in a matchup that carries plenty of weight beyond the rivalry itself. Both teams have stayed in the national conversation, and this one arrives with plenty of attention on how each side is handling the grind of the season, along with the broader slate of conference games that could turn into shootouts.
For BYU, the biggest question is availability, especially with the status of running back LJ Martin still hanging over the buildup. Even without a final answer there, the Cougars are walking into a game where every detail matters, from health to execution to how well they handle Utahs level of physicality. However it plays out, this one feels like a measuring-stick moment for BYU in a Big 12 race that still has plenty of room to change. [Read more 🡒]
Bearcats Still Have Something To Play For At No. 17 Houston
Cincinnati heads into its trip to No. 17 Houston with the postseason picture already narrowed, but there is still plenty on the line for Scott Satterfields team. The Bearcats cannot reach the Big 12 Championship Game, yet a bowl game remains within view, and this one offers a chance to keep building momentum against a ranked opponent with a similar profile on both sides of the ball.
Satterfield has framed the week around the present game rather than the bigger what-ifs, which fits a matchup where Cincinnati will need to be sharp from the start. Houston brings a dangerous offense led by Conner Weigman, and the Bearcats know they are walking into a test that can say a lot about where the program stands even if the conference race is already out of reach. [Read more 🡒]
Cincinnati Needs A Cleaner Performance As One Bearcats Concern Lingers
Jerrod Calhoun opened his Cincinnati tenure with a 79-53 win over American, a solid first step for a team still trying to find its footing early in the season. The Bearcats had enough to handle business, but the night was not without concern, especially with senior forward Jayden Hastings dealing with a shoulder injury that could affect the rotation moving forward.
Cincinnati now turns to Thursdays matchup with Green Bay, which is coming off a win over Lawrence and should offer another early test for a team that needs a cleaner overall performance. Hastings remains questionable, and his status is one of the lingering issues as Calhoun looks to build on a debut that was encouraging, if not entirely smooth. [Read more 🡒]