Texas Tech arrived in 2026 with the kind of buzz that usually comes with a conference favorite, but the market has cooled a bit even with the Red Raiders still unbeaten. They were installed as the odds-on pick to win the Big 12, yet after seven weeks and a 6-0 start, their title price has slid to +200 as other undefeated teams like BYU and Utah have pushed into the picture.
Now Texas Tech heads to Cincinnati with a chance to move to 7-0, and the big debate isn’t really whether the Red Raiders can win. It’s whether they can win by enough to justify a double-digit spread.
A lot of that conversation starts with JC French IV. He has been one of the more quietly effective quarterbacks in the Big 12, completing 70.6% of his throws for 1,338 yards and nine touchdowns without an interception. If Cincinnati is going to spring the upset, French IV is going to have to be central to it.
The case for Cincinnati covering gets stronger when you dig into what Texas Tech has actually done on offense. The Red Raiders may be undefeated, but their offense has not been especially efficient, ranking 53rd nationally in EPA per pass and 88th in EPA per rush. Cincinnati, in fact, sits ahead of Texas Tech in both of those categories.
That doesn’t mean the Bearcats are walking into an easy scoring environment. Texas Tech’s defense is solid enough to make life difficult, and the key matchup here is whether Cincinnati can generate enough points to stay inside the number.
One place the Red Raiders can be attacked is through the air, where they rank 67th in opponent pass success rate. If French IV is sharp, this has the ingredients to be much tighter than the spread suggests.
In Other News...
Cincinnati Walks Into A Brutal Texas Tech Test This Week
Texas Tech has spent the last few weeks looking more and more like the kind of team that can dictate a game on both sides of the ball, and Cincinnati is walking into that reality at an awkward time. The Red Raiders have gotten a lift from J'Koby Williams and a defense that has been tough to move on the ground, which is part of why this matchup feels like such a stern exam for a Bearcats team still trying to prove it can handle a complete Big 12 opponent.
The bigger question, though, is how the Red Raiders offense has settled in around Will Hammond, who has come through a season of rehab and offseason uncertainty to give them a steadier presence under center. He has looked especially sharp in recent games against Houston and Arizona State, and if that version shows up again, Cincinnati will be dealing with a Texas Tech group that enters the week with plenty of confidence and a favorable prediction hanging over it. [Read more 🡒]
Bearcats Face A Brutal Homecoming Test They Desperately Need To Survive
Homecoming brings no soft landing for Cincinnati, which gets No. 8 Texas Tech on a weekend when the Bearcats badly need to steady themselves. The matchup comes with plenty of pressure attached after back-to-back losses, and the numbers only underline how steep the climb is. Both teams have been productive on the ground and through the air, but Cincinnati knows this one will be shaped less by reputation than by execution.
The Bearcats coaches and players have spent the week talking about the need for a clean game plan against a ranked opponent that has done a lot of things well. For Cincinnati, the challenge is not just keeping pace with a top-10 team, but finding a way to make homecoming feel like a reset instead of another step in the wrong direction. The opportunity is there, even if the margin for error feels razor thin. [Read more 🡒]