Cincinnati’s path to a real Big 12 push in 2026 starts with something far less glamorous than highlight plays or headline recruits: finishing games.
That has been the Bearcats’ problem for a while now, and the numbers from 247Sports’ Cody Nagel make it impossible to ignore. Since the start of Luke Fickell’s final season and through Scott Satterfield’s tenure, Cincinnati is 0-20 when trailing by seven or more points. That helps explain why the program has only one November win under Satterfield, a victory over Houston in 2023.
The late-season slide has been ugly, too. Cincinnati has finished the last two seasons on five-game losing streaks, and the broader fourth-quarter picture is just as rough.
The Bearcats are 47.5% when entering the fourth quarter within six points, which ties them for 15th worst. That’s the kind of number that tells you close games have not been going their way.
There is one bright spot in the data: when Cincinnati has a seven-point lead or better entering the fourth quarter, it has been almost automatic. The Bearcats own a 97% win rate in those situations. The issue, of course, is that in the Big 12, that kind of cushion is hard to build and even harder to count on.
So if Cincinnati is going to stop bleeding games late, it has to start by easing the load on both sides of the ball. Last season, the Bearcats were the nation’s worst time-of-possession team, and the defense showed signs of wearing down as the year went on. The offense also asked too much of a banged-up Brendan Sorsby by the end of the losing streak.
That puts even more pressure on the defense to get off the field. Tyson Veidt’s group ranked 107th nationally in defensive stop rate last season, with stops defined as drives ending in punts, turnovers, or turnover on downs. That has to change if Cincinnati wants to turn more games into fourth-quarter wins instead of fourth-quarter regrets.
Nate Woody is the one tasked with helping fix that side of the ball, and Satterfield said at Big 12 Media Days that the staff believes the personnel can be used more aggressively.
"We got some great linebackers that can really put pressure on offenses, and we got to be able to utilize those guys," Satterfield said at Big 12 Media Days. "I think in this defense we're going to be able to do that, and obviously be able to mix in some coverages with that as well. So that's kind of what we've been doing this whole spring, and as we approach the summer, is finding different ways to be able to do that."
With fall camp set to begin next week, Cincinnati is entering Year 4 of the Satterfield era still looking for a cleaner finish. If the Bearcats are going to contend in 2026, closing time has to look a lot different than it has so far.