October brought a fresh round of chaos to ESPN’s FPI ratings, and Week 5 produced some of the biggest swings yet. The math-driven system was especially fond of blowouts this time around, which helped several teams climb fast while others tumbled hard after ugly losses.
Kansas got one of the week’s clearest boosts after hammering Middle Tennessee State 55-0. The 2-2 Jayhawks are still sitting at just a 37.7% chance to reach six wins, but the lopsided victory pushed them up from near the bottom of the Big 12 into the middle of the pack.
Wake Forest made an even louder statement in the ACC. Its 57-3 rout of Stanford sent the Deacons all the way up to fourth in the league, just one spot behind third place.
Wake is now third in the conference in playoff odds at 13.3%, with only Pitt and Miami ahead of it. That leaves Wake’s clearest path as simple as it gets: outlast Pitt and hope the ACC earns a second CFP berth.
Florida State, meanwhile, jumped 15 points after its win and now sits third in the ACC FPI rankings.
Missouri also cashed in on a dominant performance, using its 45-17 win over Florida to earn a notable rise in the SEC. Even so, the Tigers still have a long climb ahead.
Missouri is ranked 18th nationally and eighth in the conference, with a 10% shot at making the Playoff. That puts the Tigers well behind the SEC’s near-locks - Texas, Alabama and Georgia - and still a step back from LSU and Tennessee, who are fighting for what could be a fourth spot.
But with three top-10 opponents still left, Missouri has at least given itself a chance to keep climbing.
Virginia suffered the biggest drop of the week after getting blown out 38-7 by Florida State. The 3-2 Cavaliers fell from near the top of the ACC to ninth in the league. They’re still projected to reach a bowl, with an 81.3% chance of getting to six wins, but their playoff hopes have effectively disappeared at 0.6%.
Stanford’s situation looks even worse. After losing 57-3 to Wake Forest, the Cardinal sit at the bottom of the Power Four.
A few teams ranked ahead of the 2-3 Cardinal include Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, 1-3 Kennesaw State, Miami of Ohio and Colorado State. Stanford’s odds of reaching six wins are only 2.8%.
Cincinnati also took a serious hit after a 34-7 loss to Arizona. The Bearcats entered the week unbeaten, but at 4-1 their playoff chances are now down to 0.5%. Even getting to six wins and securing a bowl bid is far from certain, with FPI giving them a 75.9% chance to get there.
In Other News...
Cincinnati's Unbeaten Start Just Ran Into A Serious Reality Check
Cincinnatis unbeaten start was always going to get tested once the schedule tightened, and Arizona delivered the kind of wake-up call that can reshape a season. The Wildcats controlled the game from the start in their first home conference win, beating the Bearcats 34-7 and making life miserable for Cincinnatis offense, especially on the ground.
Arizonas defense took away Cincinnatis run game and forced the Bearcats into a long afternoon while the Wildcats piled up a season-high 238 rushing yards of their own. Noah Fifita, Brandon Phelps and Chase Kennedy all played key roles in the win, and afterward the focus in the Arizona locker room centered on preparation and resilience, the sort of details that matter most when a team starts to believe it can build something real. [Read more 🡒]
Bearcats Bye Week Suddenly Feels Huge After A Loss Fans Wont Ignore
Saturdays trip to Arizona left Cincinnati with far more questions than answers, and the timing could hardly be better for a reset. The Bearcats were overwhelmed on both sides of the ball in a 34-7 loss, managing just four yards per play while Arizona piled up 522 yards and 30 first downs in a game that never felt especially close. Head coach Scott Satterfield and quarterback JC French both pointed to the difficulties of dealing with Arizonas defense, a reminder that this was not just a bad offensive night, but a full-team struggle.
Now the Bearcats get a week off before returning to face West Virginia, and the pause arrives with real importance. A bye week can help a team clean up execution, regroup after a lopsided loss and sort through issues that showed up in every phase against Arizona. For Cincinnati, it also becomes a chance to steady itself before the schedule moves on, because the way this one went leaves little doubt that the next stretch will demand a sharper version of the Bearcats than the one that took the field Saturday. [Read more 🡒]