White Sox manager Will Venable has put himself in the thick of the Manager of the Year race, and the betting markets are treating him like the man to beat.
Entering Friday’s action, Venable was the favorite on most platforms. Kalshi had him with a 57% chance to win the award, Polymarket listed him at 47%, and FanDuel had him as the top option at -160. Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy, who took over a last-place team in April and has turned the season around, is the usual No. 2 choice, while Rays manager Kevin Cash - the man guiding the AL-best team - sits third.
That kind of support makes sense on paper because the White Sox have become the most surprising story in baseball, and Venable is now in his second year at the helm. The season has not been flawless, but it has been a major step forward for him, and the record is doing a lot of the talking. In the simplest terms, he’s winning games, and that matters most in these award races.
Still, the view from inside the White Sox fan base is more complicated. Venable’s in-game management has drawn plenty of criticism, with complaints that he leans too heavily on handedness instead of the numbers.
His bullpen choices have also been questioned, along with a general tendency to leave the team in less-than-ideal spots to finish games. The White Sox have won plenty this year, but some of those results have felt like they happened despite the manager rather than because of him.
To be fair, managing goes way beyond the moves that get second-guessed in the moment. Venable has generally put together solid lineups, sticking with his regulars except for the occasional day off, and he has done a good job making the most of the roster he’s been given.
The clubhouse piece matters too, and by that measure he appears to have done well. Several White Sox players have talked about how much fun they’ve had this season and how good the clubhouse vibes have been, and that environment is tied to the culture Venable has helped create.
The comparison to Rick Renteria comes up for a reason. Renteria had a reputation as a strong clubhouse presence, but his game management often left plenty to be desired, and that’s the lane some fans see Venable in right now.
One recent example came Monday night, when Venable chose to pitch to Pete Crow-Armstrong with first base open. He defended that decision after the game, but it was the kind of move that fuels the frustration around his process.
From the outside, it sure looks like the oddsmakers are leaning hard on the White Sox record and the team’s outperformance relative to projections. Whether they’re watching every move Venable makes is another question.
What’s clear is that the White Sox have been excellent, and Venable deserves real credit for the leadership and culture he’s brought. But his in-game decision-making still has a long way to go, and calling him the best manager in the American League right now would be jumping ahead of the evidence.
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