PECOTA Projects Modest Step Forward for White Sox, But Real Progress Hinges on Murakami and Montgomery
The PECOTA projections are in, and while they’re not exactly throwing a parade for the 2026 White Sox, there’s at least a flicker of forward movement. Baseball Prospectus pegs the Sox for a 69-93 finish - a modest bump from last year’s 61-101 projection - but still firmly planted at the bottom of the AL Central.
Let’s put it in perspective: the Royals and Tigers are each projected for 84 wins, the Twins come in at 79, and the Guardians at 76. The White Sox? Still trailing the pack, but at least they're moving in the right direction - even if it’s more shuffle than sprint.
That said, there’s a sliver of intrigue buried in the numbers. PECOTA ran 1,000 simulations of the season, and for the first time in a while, the White Sox didn’t completely flatline.
In 2025, the system didn’t give them any chance of finishing above .500. This year?
There’s a thin, barely-there edge of possibility that stretches beyond 81 wins. It’s only a 1.5% chance of making the postseason, but hey - it beats zero.
And in the world of projections, zero is as cold as it gets.
But that whisper of hope comes with some very specific conditions. Chief among them: Munetaka Murakami needs to hit the ground running - and fast.
PECOTA sees him slashing .233/.348/.487 with 34 home runs, a 14% walk rate, and a hefty 33.8% strikeout rate. That kind of production would make him the most valuable position player on the roster at 3.4 WARP.
But for a guy making his MLB debut, that’s a tightrope walk. The power is real, the patience is promising, but the swing-and-miss could be the wild card that determines whether he’s a rookie sensation or a work in progress.
Then there’s Colson Montgomery. PECOTA isn’t exactly buying stock in the Sox’s top infield prospect just yet.
His 50th-percentile projection has him regressing to a .217/.291/.388 line - same 21 homers as last year, but over twice as many plate appearances. It’s a cautious outlook that tempers expectations, especially when paired with the uncertainty around Murakami’s transition from NPB to MLB.
Still, there’s a kind of balance here that makes the overall projection feel reasonable. If Murakami outperforms expectations but Montgomery stumbles, or vice versa, the net result might still land the Sox around that 69-win mark.
But if both click? If Murakami adjusts quickly and Montgomery takes a step forward?
That’s when things get interesting.
And that’s really the crux of it. Any version of the 2026 White Sox that flirts with .500 - let alone contends - likely involves breakout seasons from both Murakami and Montgomery.
That’s a tall order for two young players, but it also highlights just how much of this rebuild is riding on internal development. Manager Will Venable and the front office know the climb ahead is steep, and PECOTA’s projections serve as both a reality check and a challenge.
The pieces are there, but they’ll need to click in ways we haven’t seen yet.
Fedde Officially Joins the Fold
On the roster front, the White Sox made it official with Erick Fedde. The right-hander is in on a one-year, $1.5 million deal, a low-risk move that could pay off if he finds a groove.
With pitchers and catchers reporting, the Sox were able to shift Ky Bush to the 60-day IL to make room. Bush, who’s working his way back from Tommy John surgery, threw a bullpen session Tuesday alongside fellow rehabbers Mason Adams and Prelander Berroa.
Expect Berroa - and likely Drew Thorpe - to follow Bush onto the 60-day IL soon as the roster shuffling continues.
Fedde’s deal is a budget-friendly flyer - essentially Bryse Wilson money - and while there’s room to debate whether the Sox should’ve spent more on a proven arm, the reality is that most of the available options come with similar question marks. Chris Paddack signed with the Marlins for $4 million, José Quintana took $6 million from the Rockies, and none of those moves scream “sure thing.” Fedde, at $1.5 million, is a reasonable gamble in that context.
For those keeping score at home, Fedde will wear No. 47 this season. His old number, 20, now belongs to Miguel Vargas.
So if you already bought a Fedde No. 20 jersey, well... consider it a collector’s item. Or a conversation starter.
Either way, he’s back - just with a new number.
What It All Means
This isn’t a team that’s going to be handed anything. If the White Sox are going to surprise anyone in 2026, it’s going to come from within - from young players stepping up, from calculated risks like Fedde panning out, and from a coaching staff that can coax more out of a roster still finding its footing.
PECOTA isn’t bullish, but it’s not dismissive either. There’s a path, however narrow, to relevance.
Now it’s on the Sox to walk it.