The Chicago White Sox are coming off a 19-game improvement and a roster overhaul that’s injected some much-needed optimism on the South Side. But while the internal belief is strong - players and coaches alike are talking about surprising people this year - most around the league still see this group as a work in progress.
The consensus? The White Sox are trending in the right direction, but they’re probably a year or two away from serious playoff contention.
That said, timing is everything - and the White Sox might just be catching the AL Central at the right moment. This isn’t a division stacked with juggernauts.
There’s no Astros, no Dodgers, no Braves. The door isn’t wide open, but it’s definitely not shut, either.
Of course, the Detroit Tigers are trying to change that. They made a major splash earlier this week, landing left-handed ace Framber Valdez on a three-year, $115 million deal.
That’s a rotation now headlined by Valdez and two-time reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal - a one-two punch that immediately makes Detroit the team to beat in the Central. But as strong as that move looks on paper, it’s not all bad news for the White Sox.
In fact, there might be a couple of silver linings here.
Skubal’s Future in Detroit Just Got Murkier
Let’s start with Skubal. He’s been nothing short of dominant the last two seasons, and he’s entering his final year before free agency.
That’s already a big storyline in Detroit, but the Valdez signing adds another layer. Can the Tigers really afford to pay two frontline starters north of $35 million per year - especially when one of them (Skubal) could command a record-setting deal?
The arbitration process didn’t help smooth things over, either. There was a $13 million gap between what Skubal and the Tigers filed - a sign that the two sides are far apart.
While Detroit isn’t likely to move him before Opening Day, teams across the league will be watching closely. If the Tigers stumble out of the gate or fall out of contention by midseason, Skubal could become one of the most coveted names at the trade deadline.
And even if Detroit holds onto him through 2026, the odds of Skubal sticking around long-term feel shaky at best. Valdez is already locked in through 2027 (with an opt-out), and shelling out another massive contract for a second ace may not be in the cards. That’s a potential break for the White Sox - not this year, but in the seasons to come.
Valdez Is a Win-Now Move - But There’s Risk
As for Valdez, there’s no doubt he makes the Tigers better right now. He’s been a model of durability, logging 175+ innings every year since 2022, and he’s done it with a style that should age well - relying on movement and ground balls rather than overpowering velocity.
But this deal isn’t without risk. Valdez is 32 and will be making around $38 million per year for the next two seasons.
That’s elite money, and while his track record suggests he can live up to it, there are some red flags. He gives up a fair amount of hard contact, and when his command slips, things can unravel quickly.
If his decline starts sooner than expected, this contract could turn sour fast.
There are also some questions about his presence in the clubhouse. One particular incident from the 2025 season raised eyebrows - a moment where Valdez appeared to intentionally cross up his catcher, Cesar Salazar, after a mound disagreement.
Valdez has denied it was intentional, but the footage - and the chatter around the league - tell a different story. That kind of tension doesn’t just disappear, especially in a clubhouse trying to push into contention.
The White Sox’s Long-Term Outlook Remains Steady
Bottom line: the Tigers made a bold move to win now, but it doesn’t change the long-term picture for the White Sox. Chicago wasn’t pegged as a 2026 contender before the Valdez deal, and they’re still not. But the rebuild is moving in the right direction, and the future is starting to take shape.
If the Tigers go all-in and it doesn’t pan out - whether due to age, injuries, or financial strain - the White Sox could be in prime position to take advantage a year or two down the line. This division isn’t locked up for the next five years. And while Detroit may have made the biggest move of the offseason, it’s far from a guarantee of sustained success.
For now, the White Sox stay the course. Let the Tigers spend big. Chicago’s time might not be now - but it’s coming.