Let's dive into the evolving world of bullpen strategy, where the winds of change are blowing through the dugouts of Major League Baseball. The relief pitcher, once a role born out of necessity, has transformed over the decades.
Back in the day, starting pitchers were expected to hurl until their arms couldn't take it anymore. But as the game evolved, so did the role of the reliever.
The introduction of the save statistic in 1969 marked a pivotal moment, elevating the relief pitcher to a respected position in the baseball hierarchy.
Enter the era of the "fireman"-those versatile relievers who could extinguish rallies as early as the sixth inning and carry the team through to the end. They weren't just one-inning wonders; they were the backbone of the bullpen. Tony La Russa later redefined the role with the modern closer, who would emerge in the ninth inning to seal the deal.
But as the saying goes, what's old is new again. There's a growing trend to move away from the traditional closer role and back to the adaptable fireman approach.
And honestly, it makes a lot of sense. The highest pressure situations in a game don't always wait until the ninth inning.
Consider this: is a three-run lead in the ninth really more critical than a one-run lead in the seventh with two runners threatening on base?
Sure, a one-run game in the ninth can be nerve-wracking, but assuming every game will be close by then isn't always realistic. Especially for teams with potent offenses that can extend leads late in the game. So why not use your best arms to douse any potential flare-ups in the sixth, seventh, or eighth innings before they ignite into something more dangerous?
This brings us to the Chicago White Sox and their manager, Will Venable. He's got a trio of firemen in Sean Newcomb, Bryan Hudson, and Grant Taylor, who have all embraced multi-inning roles in high-stakes situations. Yet, Venable's hands are somewhat tied by the presence of Seranthony Domínguez, the team's designated closer with a hefty price tag.
Chris Getz, overseeing the team's player development, might have had better uses for that investment. In scenarios where a two- or three-inning save from Newcomb or Taylor would be ideal, Venable has often defaulted to Domínguez, adhering to the traditional closer script.
The numbers paint a stark picture. Domínguez's performance, when measured by leverage-based statistics, lags behind his bullpen mates.
The average leverage index (aLI) highlights the pressure relievers face when entering a game. Domínguez, as expected for a closer, has the highest aLI in the White Sox bullpen.
Yet, when you look at win probability added (WPA), Domínguez stands as a negative contributor, while Newcomb leads the pack with a WPA of 1.8.
The three firemen-Newcomb, Hudson, and Taylor-are nearly interchangeable in their effectiveness, each boasting a WPA of 1.0 or higher. They've collectively contributed more wins than losses for the Sox.
So, how long before Domínguez faces a role adjustment? Venable and Getz will need to make that call together.
It's a twist of fate that Getz provided Venable with a closer when the team already had three capable firemen ready to guide the White Sox through the crucial stretch of the season, where true contenders emerge from the pack.
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